FEMC: Tracking Shifts in Disturbance Regimes

Change Type:
Advancing Invasives

Advancing invasive pests and pathogens are novel species with the potential to disrupt forest ecosystems. Extreme cold typically limits the spread of many invasives into our region, but as temperatures increase across the region, so does the threat of invasive species. Novel pest introductions often lead to severe defoliation and tree mortality due to lack of natural biological controls and unanticipated, irregular life cycle dynamics. Tracking the advance of novel invasive species can help quantify impact and inform management to mitigate those impacts. High priority pest/pathogen species included in this analysis are Southern Pine Beetle, Hemlock Woolly Adelgid, and Emerald Ash Borer. Due to the fairly recent introduction of these pests into the region, we did not include frequency in the analysis. Others, such as beech leaf disease and oak wilt, are increasingly of concern, but do not yet have enough occurrences across the region to analyze.

Frequency (number of years observed) and maximum area damaged in single extent by agent, with the size of the circle indicating total damage caused to date. Click and drag to zoom into chart.
Southern Pine Beetle

Southern pine beetle (SPB) is a small bark beetle that is native to the southeastern US and primarily infects pine trees, but may also damage hemlock and spruce. Its range has expanded eastward as temperatures warm in the region. In the southwest, fires play a key role in mitigating the impacts of SPB by thinning pine stands and disrupting pheromone communication among SPB populations. It is anticipated that as the climate of the northeast continues to change and warm, southern pine beetle will become an increasing concern. Using the 100 years of Aerial Survey data aggregated in the FEMC Northeastern Forest Health Atlas we extracted records of damage attributed to southern pine beetle across the region.

Analysis

STATE:
Severity is represented by two metrics, 1) the number of acres of damage categoriezed as mortality and 2) the percent of total acres damaged categorized as mortality
Extent is calculated as the total area (acres) damaged by the selected pest
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Use SHIFT+Scroll to zoom

Disturbance Trend Summary

As a relatively new species to the northeast, the historical record of southern pine beetle damage only goes back to 2015.

Highlights

  • New York is the only state in the region to have recorded instances of southern pine beetle damage, primarily on Long Island. However, there have been isolated occurrences in Orange, Rockland and Ulster counties, causing concerns about spread.
  • The first year that SPB was recorded was the most widespread impact. However it didn't cause any mortality until subsequent years.

Additional Resources

Data Program Years Org Data Products
Hemlock Woolly Adelgid

Hemlock Wooly Adelgid (HWA) is an invasive insect that attacks hemlock trees which are a key species in northeastern forest ecosystems due to its abundance, shade-tolerance and longevity. First detected in Connecticut in 1985, HWA has led to widespread mortality in southern portions of the region. Here we are tracking its advancement across the region. Using the 100 years of data aggregated in the FEMC Northeastern Forest Health Atlas we extracted records of damage attributed to hemlock woolly adelgid across the region, starting with the first aerial detection in 1997.

Analysis

STATE:
Severity is represented by two metrics, 1) the number of acres of damage categoriezed as mortality and 2) the percent of total acres damaged categorized as mortality
Extent is calculated as the total area (acres) damaged by the selected pest
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Use SHIFT+Scroll to zoom

Disturbance Trend Summary

The total acres reported as damaged by HWA has increased over the reporting period, with high levels of year to year variability primarily driven by winter HWA mortality in extremely cold years.

However the acres of damage reported as mortality has been relatively stable, indicating that some hemlock may be tolerating low levels of HWA infestation.

Highlights

  • While the total acres of reported HWA damage has increased slightly over the study period, acres in mortality has not. This indicates that some hemlock have been able to persist in spite of infestation.
  • Year to year variability is high, primarily driven by extreme cold winters resulting in high HWA mortality.
  • Connecticut and New York have been heaviest hit by HWA, accounting for most of the damage in the region

Additional Resources

Data Program Years Org Data Products
Beech Leaf Disease

Analysis

STATE:
Severity is represented by two metrics, 1) the number of acres of damage categoriezed as mortality and 2) the percent of total acres damaged categorized as mortality
Extent is calculated as the total area (acres) damaged by the selected pest
legend for chart
legend for chart
Use SHIFT+Scroll to zoom

Disturbance Trend Summary

Highlights

Additional Resources

Data Program Years Org Data Products
Oak Wilt

Analysis

STATE:
Severity is represented by two metrics, 1) the number of acres of damage categoriezed as mortality and 2) the percent of total acres damaged categorized as mortality
Extent is calculated as the total area (acres) damaged by the selected pest
legend for chart
legend for chart
Use SHIFT+Scroll to zoom

Disturbance Trend Summary

Highlights

Additional Resources

Data Program Years Org Data Products
Emerald Ash Borer

Emerald ash borer (EAB) is an invasive beetle originally from Asia that has caused widespread ash mortality. EAB was first introduced to the US Midwest in 2002 and was first spotted in the region in 2012. It has moved steadily north from initial infestations in Connecticut and Massachusetts into New York, New Hampshire and Vermont. Maine and Rhode Island have yet to record large scale damage, but it is likely that with changing climates and warmer temperatures it will continue to move north. Using the 100 years of data aggregated in the FEMC Northeastern Forest Health Atlas we extracted records of damage attributed to emerald ash borer across the region, starting with the first aerial detection in 2013.

Analysis

STATE:
Severity is represented by two metrics, 1) the number of acres of damage categoriezed as mortality and 2) the percent of total acres damaged categorized as mortality
Extent is calculated as the total area (acres) damaged by the selected pest
legend for chart
legend for chart
Use SHIFT+Scroll to zoom

Disturbance Trend Summary

The number of total acres mapped with EAB was relatively stable until 2019 when it increased dramatically.

Acres of mortality also increased significantly in 2019, with almost 100% of all EAB damage classified as mortality.

Highlights

  • While the total acres damaged by EAB is has increased fairly slowly over the last few years, the percent of the damage that has caused tree mortality is increasing, with more than 50% categorized as mortality for the last 3 years.
  • 2019 reported a significant spike in total acres damaged, with 100% mortality. All states in the region except Maine and Rhode Island recorded damage, with this being the first year of widespread damage recorded in Vermont.

Additional Resources

Data Program Years Org Data Products