The Taliban promised to govern differently after seizing power in Afghanistan for the first time since the 1990s. Already, it seems, its leaders are breaking their promises.

“They have already started repressing women and anyone who speaks out against them,” said Peter Henne, a professor in the Department of Political Science.

Henne, an expert on the Middle East and terrorism, believes the regime will still be brutal despite trying to govern in a more structured way. But he also predicts the new regime is unlikely to offer a staging ground for attacks on U.S. soil — and that American leaders are searching for a new way to exert influence overseas.

“I can see them actually trying to govern, as opposed to the warlord-like rule they had in the ‘90s, but that doesn't mean they're going to be nice or moderate,” Henne said. “It's going to be the same kind of brutal rule — not as disruptive to people around them, but I don't see any chance of them moderating.”

Upon taking power in the capital city Kabul in August, Taliban leaders made clear that they’d look to govern in a new way. But Henne said this promise is most likely a PR tactic.

“I think the hope was that by presenting themselves as a more moderate or tolerant force, it would help other countries justify working with them,” he said.

In the past, he said, the Taliban had few allies and was isolated internationally. And the tactic seems to have worked. Russia and China have shown signs of warming up to working with the Taliban.

When a lot of people remember or read about the Taliban’s rule in the ‘90s, Henne said, they think about the group’s sheltering of the al-Qaida terrorist network. That support gave al-Qaida a base to plan the 9/11 attacks, he said, and people worry that might happen again. He doesn’t buy it.

“I don't like to be optimistic with terrorism — it's dangerous — but I think it's less likely,” he said. “I think al-Qaida is a much weaker force than it was at the time. And then the Taliban saw the huge negative consequences from supporting this group. So I don't think the fact that they're back in charge represents a direct threat to us.”

The Taliban’s resurgence is “horrible” for Afghan people, the professor said, but not a major risk for new mass terror attacks against the U.S.

The U.S. government’s decision to pull out of Afghanistan seems to reflect increased desire among the population to move away from interventionist policies, Henne said. That wasn’t entirely unpredictable.

“A lot of American people have lost their appetite for intervention in the Middle East,” he said.

So why did the withdrawal take so many years to happen? And could it have gone better?

Even though public interest in keeping our presence in Afghanistan was diminishing, the US struggled to draw down troops. The conflict spanned the tenure of three presidents before major steps were taken to completely remove troops from the region.

“It was hard …. especially for those who have served in the military to feel like we’re leaving without accomplishing anything,” Henne said.

Disagreement between the Obama administration, the military, and the voters caused a political stalemate. “The Obama administration wanted to draw down troops. The military was opposed,” Henne said.

Another concern with retrenching from the region was that it would create an environment where violence and instability could fester, he said. “We just didn’t know how to stabilize the country,” he said. “And we still don’t. I think we decided it’s not going to happen.”

President Joe Biden’s decision to pull back troops was lambasted as chaotic and unorganized. Critics wondered how the Taliban had taken back power so quickly.

“I think the initial chaos was unfortunate,” he said, “but I don’t see that it could have been avoided … just maybe lessened.”

How the U.S. may shift its foreign policy is up in the air. If human rights are violated, will the American government look toward intervention again? Henne isn’t sure.

“I think we’re searching for the new paradigm.”

Professor Henne's research and teaching focus on the Middle East and global religious politics. He looks specifically at how states use religion in their foreign policies, and how ties between religion and state affect politics. His book Islamic Politics, Muslim States and Counterterrorism Tensions, (Cambridge University Press, 2017), analyzes how Muslim states' relationship with Islam affects their counterterrorism policies; the study includes a large-n statistical analysis as well as in-depth case studies of Pakistan, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.

Brady Jalili is a Political Science junior with a passion for politics.