Multi-scale Integrated Models of Ecosystem Services

EBM Pilot Projects in the Gulf of Maine - Meeting Summary

Co-sponsored by: COMPASS, Census of Marine Life, Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary, MA Ocean Partnership Fund, Department of Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, UVM

Meeting Date & Location: October 29, 2007 at the University of New Hampshire

Please visit WEB LINK to obtain meeting materials such as PowerPoint presentations.

Overview:
Approximately 30 individuals from a wide range of sectors throughout the Gulf of Maine met for a two-day meeting to discuss the creation of pilot projects. The pilot project goal is to create a scientific basis for using an ecosystem-based management (EBM) approach. This meeting was an initial step in organizing science and management communities to develop an interdisciplinary modeling framework. The modeling framework is meant to:
• Describe trade-offs of ecosystem services under various management scenarios so that decision-makers can make conscious choices;
• Look at interconnections between human activities thus nurturing better management across sectors; and
• Work at an appropriate scale that is manageable to support an EBM approach

Why Pilot Projects?
The overarching objective of a pilot project approach is to create working models to inform management processes. By applying a modeling framework on a pilot project basis first, efforts can be focused, new information learned and the framework can be adapted as needed to eventually inform policy development. Engagement with policymakers in both countries will need to occur to understand what type of information is needed to take an EBM approach. As part of this pilot project effort, goals will be created based on existing and new input from managers so that the modeling framework will actually inform management implementation.
Criteria for determining most appropriate pilot areas include available data*, transferable data, infrastructure, interested scientists and managers, and a site’s ability to deal with a multiplicity of human interactions to better evaluate trade-offs. Pilot areas do not need to be bound by political jurisdictions.
*If there is a lack of data, a site can still be considered so that we can learn how to move forward in a weak data area.
After much discussion one Canadian and one United States pilot site was chosen (exact boundaries TBD): southwest New Brunswick portion of the Bay of Fundy and Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary potentially including Provincetown in-shore to Boston or Cape Ann.

Multi-Integrated Model for Ecosystem Services (MIMES) as a modeling framework
Participants watched a modeling presentation from representatives of the Gund Institute for Ecological Economics at the University of Vermont. Presentation can be found at WEB LINK. The presentation gave an overview of MIMES, a multi-scale, integrated suite of models that assess the true value of ecosystem services in a sophisticated and transferable system. The development of a MIMES sub-model will allow ecosystem managers to quickly understand the dynamics of ecosystem services, how their services are linked to human welfare, and how their function and value might change under various management scenarios.
In essence, MIMES is used as a human experience model to look at quality of life - the interaction of human needs and the subjective perception of fulfillment as mediated by the opportunities available to meet these needs. The current project goals of MIMES are to:
• Create a sophisticated and transferable system to elucidate dynamics of ecosystem services
o Dynamic spatial model
o Collect data
o Provide a user interface

• Understand link between ecosystem services and human welfare
o Develop valuation protocols
• Forecast changes in ecosystem functions and values under various management scenarios
o Model scenario development

Below is the model design whereby one can look at different locations and then link the exchanges between them.

As seen above, the model characteristics include feedback loops among and between ecosystem services within various systems. Ecosystem services are classified according to spatial/temporal scales. Yet each service has a different stakeholder group affiliated with it which helps to understand the value of each. The model combines different spatial scales together to look at a whole value system of a given area.

Does the MIMES application fit the pilot project objectives?
Given the pilot project objectives below, participants discussed whether MIMES was an appropriate modeling framework. A model should…
• Describe trade-offs of ecosystem services under various management scenarios so that decision-makers can make conscious choices;
• Look at interconnections thus nurturing better management across sectors
• Work at an appropriate scale that is manageable and workable to support an EBM approach

The following were considerations for using MIMES for this pilot project initiative:
1. Does MIMES provide important information for EBM? MIMES provides an integrated framework in such a way that it produces a network of outputs to make management decisions. It is a dynamic modeling interface that provides for collaborative efforts. MIMES should be connected to existing models so that the best available data and information populate the model.
2. MIMES and an integrated GIS mapping program should be converged.
3. The model should assume feedback in the system.
4. There should be an ecological forecasting function of the model and a way to quantify the uncertainty around each forecast.
5. Expert knowledge and expertise populate the model, so the uncertainty lies in the uncertainty levels of the studies generating the data. Therefore, model should display confidence levels around spatial uncertainty.
6. A stakeholder interface should be built into the model so that different functions can be entered and different outcomes can be produced.
Other modeling approaches were also considered such as Atlantic and EcoPath. MIMES was chosen as the preferred approach though it will be critical to continually understand what information can be obtained from each modeling approach and whether it is applicable and useful to the management process. MIMES was chosen because it can be used as a way to simulate economic consequences for a full set of services under a variety of hypotheses and management scenarios. It is a way to project management consequences over the medium and long term. It is a dynamic model, unlike Ecopath, and it is more integrated. MIMES could be used to understand interconnections and then fit into a statistical model.

Potential Pilot Sites: Southwest New Brunswick portion of the Bay of Fundy and Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary
Representatives gave PowerPoint presentations of the ecological, political and socio-economic features of potential pilot areas within the Gulf of Maine. The following were considered:
1. Stellwagen Bank (+ inshore)

2. Inshore option - Southwest New Brunswick – interesting comparisons to Stellwagen

3. Inshore option 2 - Passamaquoddy Bay? / Deer Island / Campobello Island

4. Offshore option - Didn’t recommend specific sites (but probably less interesting, as there are less uses / services, etc. and no real reason that it needs to be offshore)

Presentations can be found at WEB LINK

Summary:
Although several organizations co-sponsored this meeting, none are funding entities. The EBM Regional Pilot Project Work Group must collectively find funding to develop the pilot projects. The group will simultaneously begin work in the following areas:
Four sub-groups have been formed to guide efforts.
1. Data integration and interoperability – What information is needed and available to populate models and how are data packaged into usable formats.
2. Goal setting – Identify an initial suite of ecological goods and services (services for short) that the model should strive to predict or forecast.
3. Technical modeling consortium: Think through technical details to understand how different modeling approaches may fit together when developing the MIMES model and otherwise and figure out what different modeling approaches do to inform management at different spatial and temporal scales; incorporate models that are looking at interactions across services.
4. Funding: Research various funding opportunities for collaborative projects. Some options include:
a. GeoConnections.org – US/Canada cross-border regional online mapping systems - $75,000 to one project. Proposals due 12/18.
b. EBM tools – geospatial tools – EBM tool innovation fund
c. Sea Grant
d. NOAA – (Beth Turner 09)
e. Gulf of Maine renewal proposal
f. Marine animal populations renewal
g. Sloan Foundation
h. NSF (coupled human and natural systems)

Action Steps for Work Group:
1. Determine set of primary ecosystem services for initial focus (4-5) and look at management plans to support and/or inform understanding of key services in particular pilot areas.
2. Once services are determined, ask what are the underlying human/natural system attributes/interactions that will affect those services – drivers that influence services (i.e., what needs to be modeled to understand whether or not those services are changing). Note: Need to incorporate climate change and adjacent land use patterns as key drivers of change
3. Take a comprehensive look at pilot sites to ensure there are both good contrasts and similarities between them.
4. Start developing the model.
5. Move into management interaction/evaluation once we have further development of modeling approach to let users know what the group/modeling framework can provide. A demonstration will help to get beyond the conceptual.

Specific Work Group Tasks & Timeline
COMPASS staff coordinates communication among the four working sub-groups

November & December:
• Meeting summary is distributed
• Research on funding sources
• Ecosystem services are recommended for pilot sites through a goal-setting process
• A COMPASS regional work group website is created for resources on all work group activities (work group 1 materials can be found here WEB LINK)
• An online collaboration page for sub-group members to post examples of data sets we believe to be useful for the model will be created
• COMPASS staff works with sub-group leaders to assess progress and support coordination

January – April:
• Model Creation

April:
• Work Group meeting to assess work to date and plan for future steps

Appendix I: Goal Setting Memo – (Jud Crawford - Lead)
* List of initial services are in Attachment A
Modeling the Production of Goods and Services from the Gulf of Maine Ecosystem
The charge of the goal-setting sub-group is to identify an initial suite of ecological goods and services (services for short) that the model should strive to predict or forecast. In this context, these services are the goals of the model. A successful model should be able to forecast the delivery of these services by the ecosystem, taking into account the interactions among services and other parts of the ecosystem, and the tradeoffs that will be necessary when extracting a particular service or set of services. The initial suite of services is not meant to be comprehensive but just a good starting point for this fledgling modeling effort. In order for the model to be useful to managers, the services the model forecasts must relate directly to the roles and responsibilities of current or future managers. There is a continuum from broad categorization of services (e.g., food) to highly specific services (e.g. a single species of bivalve). We have sought to define services with enough specificity so that it is both clear how the services are linked to our GOM pilot areas and clear whether or not a given service falls within the domain of a particular manager.
This working group spent two hours developing a preliminary list of services on 30 October 2007, at UNH. There was considerable discussion within the group about how to interpret our assignment. In the attached service tabulation (Preliminary_Service_List_29_10_2007.xls) you will see that so far we have not been entirely consistent in our definition of services. Your feedback on this will be important before we proceed from here.
The following are a few of the points considered as the working group began its work to identify six services relevant to each of the pilot areas (Massachusetts Bay/Stellwagen Bank and Eastern Gulf of Maine/Bay of Fundy).
In order to complete our charge as we understand it, we will need to do additional work – checking with managers, reviewing the output of various processes that have been undertaken previously, and vetting our list to make sure that it has salience with a broad community of managers. We ask that the modeling working group provide some feedback on the points below and our preliminary list of services before we proceed further with this exercise. Does it seem that we are on track from your perspective?
• Each service should be a product of the ecosystem that at least one category of manager would identify as a something that he or she is responsible for as a manager. The relevant managers are listed with the services.
• The services should be among those that have been identified through stakeholder or other processes so that they are not simply a product of our small self-selected working group. For example, services identified through the Stellwagen Bank Management Review Process would be strong candidates.
• Some middle ground is desirable in the lumping-splitting continuum of service definition. If the way services are defined is overly general (lumped) then the connection to our particular pilot areas and ecosystem will be obscure. For example, food (lumped) is a highly aggregated description of marine ecosystem services while fin fish, and ground-fish, are increasingly specific definitions within the broader category of food. Where do we need to be on this continuum (we will ask managers this question too)?
• Services defined in terms of the biological components of the ecosystem may be more useful to the modelers than higher level constructs that describe human activities that rest upon them – so whales vs. whale watching – where whales are the service produced by the ecosystem, and whale watching depends up this service, for example.
• The services should be organized under several broad categories (e.g., the services sailing, kayaking, and whale watching can be subsumed under recreation).
• The definitions from the Millennium Assessment should be applied when possible.
• The initial list of services is a critical first step and should be completed as soon as possible so that the modelers will have this as they mover forward. The group was able to commit to being finished on or before 15 December 2007.
• A clear 1-2 page summary of the whole modeling endeavor is needed. It needs to explain that the goal here is to develop a forecasting tool that will be an aid to managers as they embrace EBM. It should be explained that the modelers do not aim to prescribe management actions or management decision thresholds etc.

Appendix II: Data Integration & Interoperability Memo (Michael Thompson – Lead)

The data sub-group met briefly to talk about the types of data that collectively exist and also possible data warehouses that can be tapped into. The extent of each pilot site was also discussed. For the Stellwagen region, we might include Massachusetts Bay and parts of Jeffrey’s Ledge maybe only as far north as the New Hampshire border to help limit coastal data sources from multiple states. The exact location/extent of the Canadian site was not determined. Basic base data layers were discussed such as: bathymetry, backscatter sediment, shellfish habitat suitability areas, land use, whale locations, and herring landing data.

Appendix III: Technical Modeling Memo (Les Kaufman – Lead)
TBD

Appendix IV: Sub Work Group Members
Goal Setting Work Group:
1. Ben Cowie-Haskell: ben.haskell@noaa.gov
2. Craig MacDonald: craig.macdonald@noaa.gov
3. Susan Farady: sfarady@oceanconservancy.org
4. Gregor Reid: reidgk@mar.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
5. Briana Brown: bkbrown@bu.edu
6. Anita Hamilton: hamiltona@dfo-mpo.gc.ca
7. Beth Turner: elizabeth.turner@noaa.gov
8. Stephanie Moura: smoura.mopf@comcast.net
9. Karen McCleod: overholk@science.oregonstate.edu
10. Verna DeLauer: verna.delauer@unh.edu

Technical Modeling Work Group
1. Hassan Moustahfid: hassan.moustahfid@noaa.gov
2. Les Kaufman: lesk@bu.edu
3. Joe Roman: jroman@uvm.edu
4. Roel Boumans: roelof.boumans@uvm.edu
5. Pat Halpin: phalpin@duke.edu
6. Andy Rosenberg: andy.rosenberg@unh.edu
7. Jud Crawford: jcrawford@clf.org
8. Lew Incze: lincze@usm.maine.edu
9. Jason Link: jlink@whsun1.wh.whoi.edu
10: Mike Fogarty: mfogarty@whsun1.wh.whoi.edu

Data Integration Work Group:
1. Nick Wolff: nwolff@usm.me.edu
2. Pat Halpin: phalpin@duke.edu
3. Mike Thompson: michael.a.thompson@noaa.gov
4. Stephanie Moura: smoura.mopf@comcast.net
5. Peter Lawton: lawton@mar.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
6. Sara Ellis: sara.ellis@earthlink.net

Funding Work Group: (Individuals who will follow-up on potential funding opportunities)
1. Andy Rosenberg: andy.rosenberg@unh.edu
2. Beth Turner: elizabeth.turner@noaa.gov
3. Les Kaufman: Lesk@bu.edu
4. Lew Incze: lincze@usm.maine.edu
5. Pat Halpin: phalpin@duke.edu
6. Peter Lawton: lawton@mar.dfo-mpo.gc.ca
7. Nick Wolff: nwolff@usm.me.edu
8. Stephanie Moura: smoura.mopf@comcast.net

The EBM pilot project work group’s goal is to learn about the implementation of EBM by understanding how best to manage the interactions between ecology and human activities in the pilot project areas. To do this, the work group leaders have designed an agenda that takes members through an exercise to create a draft model for use in two pilot sites.

MIMES is a multi-scale, integrated suite of models that assess the true value of ecosystem services in a sophisticated and transferable system. We’d like to propose developing a MIMES sub-model to allow ecosystem managers to quickly understand the dynamics of ecosystem services, how their services are linked to human welfare, and how their function and value might change under various management scenarios.

The goal is for this sub-model to be used at one U.S. and one Canadian pilot site as a first step toward understanding an ecosystem-based approach to management.

Pilot Sites: Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary & Canadian site TBD

Agenda – Day 1

9:15 Coffee

9:30 – 10:00 Welcome & Introductions

10:00 – 11:00 Brief overview of Action Item 1 and EBM pilot project selection criteria

11:00 – 12:00 Introduction to MIMES – demonstration

12:00 – 1:00 Lunch (catered)

1:00 – 1:30 Discussion about the use of the U.S.-based and Canadian-based pilot sites (Stellwagen Bank and Canadian site TBD)

1:30 – 2:30 Discussion about comparative data sets and the tasks needed to pull together the information for an EBM approach in the study areas

2:30 – 5:00 Draft Model Creation Exercise (including a 15 minute break)
• Determining the socioeconomic characteristics of the user population, the ecological characteristics of the ecosystem including substitutes, compliments and scarcity
• Assessing data and information gaps

Agenda – Day 2

9:15 Coffee

9:30 – 10:00 Review of accomplishments on Day 1 and goals for Day 2

10:00 – 11:30 Continuation of Draft Model Creation Exercise

11:30 – 12:30 Discussion of long-term goals for pilot project including
• Funding
• Management Application
• Evaluation
• Transferability
• Other??

12:30 – 1:00 Next action steps for work group

1:00 Adjourn

Participants
Leaders: Les Kaufman, Andy Rosenberg, Lew Incze, Stephanie Moura, Azur Moulaert, Kats Haya, Verna DeLauer, Ben Cowie-Haskell

Work Group Members
1. Kevin St. Martin – Ruetgers University
2. Rob Stephenson – DFO/St. Andrews Marine Biological Station
3. Heather Leslie – Brown University
4. Sally Yozell – The Nature Conservancy
5. Geoffrey Smith – The Nature Conservancy
6. Kathleen Leyden – Maine Coastal Program
7. Susan Farady – The Ocean Conservancy
8. Troy Hartley – Northeast Consortium
9. Jesse Mechling – NOAA
10. Kathy Mills – GBNERR
11. Sarah Carr – EBM Tools Network
12. Kate Killerlain-Morrison – MA Coastal Zone Management
13. Jennifer Atkinson – QLF Atlantic Center for the Environment
14. Briana Brown – Boston University
15. Ray Konisky – The Nature Conservancy
16. John Annala – The Gulf of Maine Research Institute
17. Christine Tilburg – GOMC/Ecosystem Indicators Partnership
18. Heather Tausig – NEAQ
19. Judy Pederson – MIT Sea Grant
20. Kerry Lageux - NEAQ
21. Billy Spitzer – NEAQ
22. John Mandelman - NEAQ

On October 30-31,2007 members of the MIMES team met up with members of the EBM team at the University of New Hampshire in Durham, NH to define ways MIMES can be used in the EBM Pilot Project.

Co-hosted by: COMPASS, Census of Marine Life, Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary, MA Ocean Partnership Fund, Department of Fisheries & Oceans Canada, MIMES – University of Vermont, Boston University

Location: University of New Hampshire

Background:

The Gulf of Maine is central to one of the world’s most productive coastal and marine regions. The area faces increasing pressure from a growing coastal population, coastal development, global climate change, shifting demand and markets for seafood, new ocean and coastal technologies, and an influx of invasive species. The future and sustainability of coastal communities and the region’s natural heritage will depend on bold initiatives today. Stakeholders could benefit by addressing management and science issues through a comprehensive strategic vision that encouraged and supported coordinated planning. Policy-relevant science can play an integral part in shaping a more ecosystem-based approach to management.

Ecosystem-based-management approaches can be used to document our scientific understanding about the interaction between ecology and human activities in several spatially explicit places.

We seek to do this by supporting pilot projects in both Canada and the United States. This effort will likely require strong and effective partnerships with existing regional entities working in these areas as well as among them to facilitate learning and accelerate progress.

Given the large geography, we will need to create some site selection criteria to ensure we make progress in a reasonable period of time. Possible criteria include: the area has enough organized and pertinent information/data and the existing capacity to be a pilot. The area is representative of different sectoral activities, human uses and impacts and there are resources that can be leveraged to support any work there.

Goal
To learn about the implementation of EBM by understanding how best to manage the interactions between ecology and human activities in the pilot project areas

Objectives
1. Create and apply techniques/approaches that enhance our scientific understanding about these interactions;
2. Develop, apply and evaluate best practices that coordinate the development and dissemination of science for EBM when working under different governance structures in the U.S. and Canada;
3. Assemble natural and socio-economic baselines;
4. Develop and apply tools to visualize the interactions between human activities and ecosystem services and evaluate tradeoffs between human uses of the ecosystem

Examples of Possible Products:
• Natural and socio-economic baselines;
• Synthetic maps and models of ecosystem properties and species distributions as well as human uses and ecosystem impacts. The products might include a human use atlas, an ecosystem properties atlas, and a threats analysis.

Potential Pilot Sites
1. Biodiversity Discovery Corridor (Bay of Fundy to the seamounts)
2. Stellwagen Bank (could include region around this area as well)
3. Massachusetts Bay
4. Coastal Maine (e.g., Muscongus Bay, Taunton Bay, etc.)
5. Great Bay
6. Southwest New Brunswick Marine Initiative
7. Bay of Fundy
8. Scotian Shelf

From L. Shawn Matott, Ph.D.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Ecosystems Research Division

Modeling frameworks such as MIMES and FRAMES can be leveraged to conduct integrated environmental modeling in support of the ERP core focus on ecosystems services. For such tools to be useful in a policy-relevant context, elucidating model uncertainty is a challenging but vital task.

To start off the discussion, let’s consider a few definitions and related concepts:

1. Uncertainty may be classified into two ‘types’: aleatory, i.e. irreducible and stemming from natural variability, and epistemic, i.e. reducible and stemming from lack of knowledge. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainties have different ramifications for policy decisions.

2. Uncertainty may also be classified in terms of its ’sources’, which include uncertain model input (e.g. amount of rainfall), uncertain model parameters (e.g. various rate constants), and uncertain model structure (e.g. the degree to which the model equations represent the real world).

3. Formal uncertainty analysis (UA) methods propagate sources of uncertainty through the model to generate statistical moments or complete probability distributions for various model outputs. Traditional UA schemes wrap a stochastic Monte Carlo shell around one or more linked (and possibly calibrated) models. More recently, there has been increased emphasis on Hierarchical Bayesian approaches, which utilize sampling procedures that explicitly condition model output on available data.

4. Less formal methods, such as scenario analysis and alternative futures, can also be important tools for uncertainty analysis; albeit in a more qualitative sense. Along these same lines, the NUSAP (Numeral, Unit, Spread, Assessment, Pedigree) system of Funtowicz and Ravetz can serve as an important tool for assessing and assuring quality throughout the modeling process.

5. Sensitivity analysis (SA) studies the degree to which model output is influenced by changes in model input. By measuring model input importance, SA methods enable identification of critical areas where knowledge or data are lacking. In this way, SA can assist decision-makers in prioritizing future research and data collection activities.

Given these definitions and concepts, we can discuss what (if any) infrastructure is available within the MIMES and FRAMES systems to support the UA/SA needs of the ERP.

I am speaking for myself here as a member of the Willamette project who has been following the DSS and valuation issues for the project. This past summer, at the encouragement of our division director, we ran a Stella exercise, in which about half a dozen of the project members were variously involved, and that resulted in an initial model combining hydrology, carbon, and nitrogen processing for the basin (attached below). It is only conceptual at this point because there are no data entered except for Corps dam operational curves. We were much aided in this effort by Nico Sayavedra, an undergrad at RPI, who did all the Stella programming, and who will be in Burlington. Part of the inspiration for this was GUMBO; some of us have read the Boumans, Costanza et al. paper. Nico got familiar with GUMBO, and he and another person gave a demo of GUMBO to some 8th graders in Corvallis as a world futures gaming experiment. The question is where to go with this kind of activity, whether to maybe use the Stella modeling as a planning tool for designing field experiments, or to actually attempt to build simulation capability.

On the other hand, an alternative approach of interest here is an integrated model that could be inspired by the Evoland modeling system (http://evoland.bioe.orst.edu/) of John Bolte and colleagues at Oregon State. Evoland is a stimulating example of a plug and play design into which valuation and policy modules as well as environmental process modules can be inserted.

So what I was hoping would happen at Burlington is a thorough examination of the philosophy, capabilities, development environment, and transferability of MIMES and its host language SIMILE, as either an alternative to the other directions that have been explored for the Willamette, or as another example of ideas that could be adapted to the needs here.

Denis White
US EPA
Corvallis, Oregon