Thesis Seminar and Defense:
ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CARBON PRICING AND ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGING ON POWER PLANT DISPATCH AND INVESTMENT DECISIONS
By
Jonathan R. Dowds
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
2:00 pm, Seminar: Gund Conference Room
3:00 pm, Defense: Gund Conference Room
ABSTRACT Climate change is occurring and is exerting profound pressures on our social, economic and environmental systems. Minimizing the impacts from continued climate change will require large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and significant changes in many facets of the global economy. The transportation and power generation sectors will be particularly impacted by these changes, as combined, they account for over of 60% of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Vehicle electrification is one mechanism for reducing greenhouse gas emission in the transportation sector while cap-and-trade systems can be used to reduce emissions from power generation. In the short term, the electricity sector’s response to emissions constraints is largely limited to altering the order in which existing plants are dispatched in order to switch generation from high to low greenhouse gas intensity technologies. In the longer term, newer, cleaner, power plants can be added to the generating mix and higher greenhouse gas intensity plants retired. This study models both the short and mid-term impacts of a cap-and-trade system for the electricity sector, taking into account the additional electricity demand that may be required for vehicle charging. The results indicate that adoption of electric vehicles could have significant implications for carbon prices in the short term when the electricity sector is constrained by existing generating technology. In the longer term, new natural gas and wind generating options can be added to the generating mix and the impact of vehicle charging is less significant.
3:00 pm, Defense: Gund Conference Room
ABSTRACT Climate change is occurring and is exerting profound pressures on our social, economic and environmental systems. Minimizing the impacts from continued climate change will require large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and significant changes in many facets of the global economy. The transportation and power generation sectors will be particularly impacted by these changes, as combined, they account for over of 60% of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Vehicle electrification is one mechanism for reducing greenhouse gas emission in the transportation sector while cap-and-trade systems can be used to reduce emissions from power generation. In the short term, the electricity sector’s response to emissions constraints is largely limited to altering the order in which existing plants are dispatched in order to switch generation from high to low greenhouse gas intensity technologies. In the longer term, newer, cleaner, power plants can be added to the generating mix and higher greenhouse gas intensity plants retired. This study models both the short and mid-term impacts of a cap-and-trade system for the electricity sector, taking into account the additional electricity demand that may be required for vehicle charging. The results indicate that adoption of electric vehicles could have significant implications for carbon prices in the short term when the electricity sector is constrained by existing generating technology. In the longer term, new natural gas and wind generating options can be added to the generating mix and the impact of vehicle charging is less significant.