Latest Score:

3.8/5

in 2019

score trend is flat over time
Weight: 10%

Changes in the proportion, extent, and severity of extreme weather events are an indication of a volatile and changing climate. Not only are extreme events stressful to forests, but they can cause significant problems for our infrastructure and health. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) computes a regional Climate Extremes Index (CEI) based on the monthly maximum and minimum temperature, daily precipitation, and monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index1. The CEI is a combination of the proportion of the year and the area in the region that has experienced an extreme event for these three indices. The long-term variation or change in the CEI represents the tendency for extremes of climate to either decrease, increase, or remain the same1. Here, we set the target for the dataset as the long-term mean with the understanding that climate extremes are a natural phenomenon, but that changes away from this baseline may pose threats to both forests and humans. A High score means that there is a high number of extreme events in a given year.

1NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. 2018. Climate Extremes Index. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/

Extreme events are increasing in occurrence, from extreme heat, extreme precipitation, and drought. As our world continues to warm, our climate will continue to experience these extreme events.

Additional Resources

National Climate Assessment 2014

National Climate Assessment 2018

NCEI State Summary for VT

 

Interpretation provided by:

NOAA, Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University (2020)

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The score is calculated using a target value and the historical range of the the entire long-term dataset. The higher the score, the closer this year's value is to the target.

Once the score is computed for each year, the trend in scores over time is calculated. If the trend is significantly positive or negative, the long-term trend is marked as increasing or decreasing respectively.

Component Description
Scored as

Distance away from long-term mean (scaled 1-5)

Target value

Long-term mean

Directionality of scores

No change from the long-term mean is better.

Minimum value used in scoring

Data minimum - 10% of range

Maximum value used in scoring

Data maximum + 10% of range

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) provides a robust Climate Extremes Index for the northeastern US1. NCEI computes the regional CEI based on a set of climate extreme indicators: (1) monthly maximum and minimum temperature, (2) daily precipitation, and (3) monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The CEI is a combination of the proportion of the year and the area in the region that has experienced an extreme event for these three indices. NCEI has defined extremes as those CEI values that fall in the upper (or lower) tenth percentile of the local period of record. Please refer to NCEI documentation for more details on calculations. Accordingly, a value of 0% for the CEI indicates that no portion of the year was subject to any of the extremes considered in the index. In contrast, a value of 100% indicates that the entire northeast region had extreme conditions throughout the year for each of the indicators. The long-term variation or change in the CEI represents the tendency for extremes of climate to either decrease, increase, or remain the same1. We set the target for the dataset as the long-term mean. The current year is scored for where it falls between the target and the upper scoring bounds (maximum value in the dataset) or the lower scoring bounds (minimum value in the dataset), scaled to be between 1 and 5.

1 NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. 2018. Climate Extremes Index. Available at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/graph/ne/cei/01-12

STRESSORS INDICATORS