Economics 195: The Election and the Economy
Professor Woolf Fall 2008
www.uvm.edu/~awoolf
General Information:
Phone: 656-0190
Office: 339 Old Mill
Email: arthur.woolf@uvm.edu
Website: http://www.uvm.edu/~awoolf/classes/fall2008/ec195/ec195.html or go to www.uvm.edu/~awoolf and follow the links
Class meeting time: Tuesday,
Thursday
Office Hours: Tuesday
and Thursday
Course Overview
The 2008 presidential election provides an opportunity to analyze key economic issues and policies facing the nation in the context of the last few months of the election cycle. Both Barack Obama and John McCain have proposed an overall economic agenda for the country. This course will examine some of the major economic issues facing the nation and how the two candidates are framing those issues. In general, the class will focus on the basic economics of major campaign issues and then look at each candidate’s position on the issue. Your task will be to evaluate each candidate’s position in the context of economic theory, being sure not to confuse positive with normative economics.
I expect every student to keep up with current economic news and events, to read the candidates’ major speeches and position papers dealing with economic issues, and to read the background materials listed in the syllabus as well as new materials that are available. Therefore, in addition to the readings listed, each student should read, at a minimum, either the Wall Street Journal or New York Times, focusing on economic issues in the campaign as well as on current economic news.
The New York Times is at www.nytimes.com (free, but registration required). The Wall Street Journal is at www.wsj.com (by subscription, $29.95 for the paper and on line version bundled together—subscription forms available in class.)
Links to other economics and economic policy resources are
listed below and hyperlinked in the on line syllabus at XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
I will also email you articles to read as they appear and encourage you to email me articles you have found on line or elsewhere.
Course Requirements
For every reading assignment, you should either (i) prepare three questions that are prompted by your reading or (ii) list one major point that the article makes that you disagree with and be able to explain why. When readings include graphs and tables, you should evaluate them with care and be able to explain what the table or graph are showing and evaluate the statistics underlying the presentation. It goes without saying that all of these analyses that you are doing should focus on the economics of the argument. I will not collect these, but I will randomly call on students for comments or questions. If I find that students are not doing this, I may give you unannounced quizzes.
You will be required to write several short papers which will include collecting and analyzing data, using Excel to produce graphs that you will integrate into your papers. You will also be required to write a final paper that will be a position paper prepared for the new president on a topic of your choosing.
Your final grade will be based on short papers and homework assignments (25%), classroom participation (15%), a final paper (30%) and final exam (30%). For all written work, you will be graded on writing style, grammar, and punctuation, clarity, and the presentation style of the paper, as well as economic content.. Papers with grammatical and/or spelling errors will be penalized.
On Line Resources
1. Official Campaign Websites:
Obama: www.barackobama.com
McCain: www.johnmccain.com
2. Economic think tanks for economic and political analysis on major issues
· Economic Policy Institute (left) http://epinet.org/
· Brookings Institution (center-left) http://www.brook.edu/
· American Enterprise Institute (center-right) http://www.aei.org/
· Heritage Foundation (right) http://www.heritage.org/
· Cato Institute (libertarian) http://www.cato.org/
3. Government sites for data and analysis
· Congressional Budget Office: www.cbo.gov
· Bureau of Economic Analysis (in the Commerce Department; publishes GDP data) www.bea.gov
· Bureau of Labor Statistics (in the Labor Department; for labor force and unemployment and inflation data) www.bls.gov
· Council of Economic Advisors (publishes the Economic Report of the President) www.whitehouse.gov/cea
4. Economists’ weblogs worth reading:
· Greg Mankiw’s Blog Harvard economist who maintains a website for his principles of economics students.
· Freakonomics Economist Steven Levitt and journalist Stephen Dubner collaborate on a New York Times blog focusing on economics. Readable and interesting.
· Vermonttiger A blog I contribute
to that looks at
· Cafehayek Economics from a libertarian perspective.
· Macroblog Comments on macroeconomics and macro policy from the Atlanta Fed.
· Capital Gains and Games Insights and commentary on economics and
· Brad DeLong’s blog UC
Class Topic and Reading List
|
Date |
Topic |
|
Other |
|
Sept 2 |
Overview of the Election and
the |
1. NBER’s
Recession Dating Procedure 2.
NBER Business Cycle
Expansions and Contractions 3.
Congressional Budget Office Economic Forecast update (February 2008) James
Hamilton, BLS, GDP Stimulus
and Permanent income hypothesis ; ricardian equivalence, keynesian Is
this a recession and should you care? 4.
James Hamilton, Is
This a Recession And Do We Care? David
Leonhardt, How
Obama Reconciles Dueling Views on Economy, New York Times Magazine, Obama
on Economy McCain
on Economy/Jobs Wall Street Journal
Debate: The Economy |
|
|
Sept 9 |
Can Economic Theory Help
Predict Election Results? |
1. Paul W. Rhode
and Koleman S. Strumpf, Historical
Presidential Betting Markets , Journal of Economic Perspectives,
Spring 2004, pp. 127-142 3.
Why
Vote When You Can Bet?, (Slate) 4. David Leonhardt, Looking
for Sure Political Bets on Online Prediction Markets, (New York
Times, Surowiecki
read |
|
|
Sept 16 |
Housing and the Subprime Mess |
1. Giant
Pool of Money Got Too Hungry, NPR, 2.
3. Institute
View: Subprime Blues,
Milken Institute Review, (Q2, 2008) 4. Zanny Minton Beddoes, Peter Orszag, Alan
Blinder, Housing
Market Presentation (video) at |
|
|
Sept 23 |
Taxes, Budget, and the Deficit |
1. Leonard Burman and Joel Slemrod, My
Weekend With Nick and Adam, Milken Institute Review (Q3, 2003),
pp. 50-58. 2. Michael Graetz, Tax Reform
Unraveling, Journal of Economic
Perspectives (Winter 2007) pp. 69–90 Peter Orszag, Macroeconomic Effects of Future Fiscal
Policies, (also read accompanying letter),
CBO, A
Updated Analysis of the 2008 Presidential Candidates’ Tax Plans,
Executive Summary, 3. Report of President’s
Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform, Read Tax Basics Ch 3 (pp19-40) and
Executive Summary (pp xii – xvii) 4.
CBO outlook http://www.cbo.gov/publications/collections/taxdistribution.cfm Obama on Fiscal Policy McCain on Taxes |
|
|
Oct 7 |
Social Security |
1. Social Security: A Primer, http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=3213&sequence=0
(ch 1-3), Congressional Budget Office 2.
James Hines and Timothy Taylor Shortfalls
in the Long Run: Predictions about
the Social Security Trust Fund Journal of Economic Perspectives (Spring
2005) pp 3-9 http://www.atypon-link.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/0895330054048759 4. David Wessel: The
Basics of Social Security (Wall Street Journal, 5. Roger Lowenstein: A
Question of Numbers (NY Times, 7. Diamond, Peter A., and
Peter R. Orszag, Saving
Social Security. " Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2005,
pp. 11–32. 8. Jeffrey Liebman, Maya McGuineas, Andrew
Samwick, Non
Partisan Social Security Reform Plan Obama on Social Security |
|
|
Oct 21 |
Trade and Gobalization Issues |
1. L.
Josh Bivens, Trade, jobs, and
wages: Are the public’s worries about
globalization justified?, Economic Policy Institute, May 2008 2. Alan Blinder, Free Trade,
Concise Encyclopedia of Economics 3. Richard Freeman, Are Your Wages Set in Beijing? Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer
1995, pp 15-32. 4. Nicholas Kristof: Inviting
All Democrats (NY Times, 5. Martin Wolf: Will Globalization
Survive? (2005) 6, Sallie James, Race to the
Bottom? The Presidential Candidates
Positions on Trade, CATO Institute, April 2008. Wall Street Journal
Debate: Trade |
|
|
Oct 28 |
Global Warming, Energy, and
the Environment |
1.The Ethanol
Boondoggle: Who’s Kidding Who?,
Milken Institute Review
(January 2007) 2. William Nordhaus, Reflections on the
Economics of Climate Change,
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
Fall 1993, pp 11-23. 3. The
Economics of Climate Change: A Primer,
CBO, 2003 (Ch 1-5) 4. Jerry Taylor, Nordhaus
vs Stern, CATO Institute, November 2006.
McCain on Energy
, McCain on Climate
Change Obama on Energy and
Environment Wall Street Journal
Debate: Energy |
|
|
Nov 11 |
Health Care |
1. Thomas Miller What
Do We Know About the Uninsured?, The American Magazine, August 2008 2. Kaiser Family Coundation, Five Basic Facts on the
Uninsured, August 2008 3. What to Watch For: http://www.kff.org/pullingittogether/022108_altman.cfm 4. Drew Altman, Separating the Forest From the Trees
in the Health Care Debate, Kaiser Family Foundation 5. Sherry Glied, Health
Care Costs: On the Rise Again, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2003, pp
125-148 Obama on Healthcare McCain on Health
Care |
|
|
Dec 9 |
Wrap Up |
Bootleggers and Baptists Bulow on Tobacco
settlement Milken Institute Review |
|
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Monday Dec 15 |
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