Jim Bove can be reached at:
jbove/ne_bu@fs.fed.us

Below is an abstract of his work with the Forest Service.
 

INTRODUCTION
Research in the United States has shown that changes in social and economic
factors are important drivers of land use change and forest fragmentation. In
Vermont, the relationship between social and economic factors and forest
fragmentation is undetermined. Increasingly, Federal and State agencies and
non-governmental organizations (NGOs) involved in natural resource management are
concerned about potential increases in forest fragmentation and its possible
effects on wildlife habitat and biodiversity. Currently, there are no empirical
studies in Vermont that have examined the extent of forest fragmentation, how
forest fragmentation has changed over time, which socio-economic factors may cause
forest fragmentation, and to what extent socio-economic factors may cause forest
fragmentation.

This research has important implications for policy as well as social and
ecological theory and methods. Policy makers attempt to indirectly manage
ecological systems such as forests through various policy tools. However, the
development of effective and efficient policies depends upon understanding the
relationships between social dynamics and forest fragmentation. Further, policy
makers need to know how current forest fragmentation compares to historic levels
and whether current and future socio-economic conditions are likely to increase or
decrease forest fragmentation. This research will also test several theoretical
relationships between social drivers and forest fragmentation through the
development and implementation of methods for spatially-explicit, integrated
analyses.

OBJECTIVES
We have two sets of objectives: one set theoretical, the other methodological.
Our primary objective is to assess and understand how socio-economic factors
relate to changes in forest fragmentation. Our main hypothesis is that changes in
forest fragmentation in Vermont are primarily the result of socioeconomic changes
in the state (in contrast to fragmentation due to insect outbreaks, hurricanes, or
climate-induced dieback). We hypothesize further that when socio-economic changes
exceed identifiable, critical thresholds, large and rapid changes in forest
fragmentation or consolidation will result.

From a methodological point of view, we have two objectives as well. First, we
will evaluate differences among three metrics of fragmentation 1) Patch-Per Unit
Index or PPU, 2) Contagion Index, and 3) Forest Continuity Index. Our hypothesis
is that although these measures of fragmentation will be correlated, they may have
unique characteristics emphasizing different aspects of forest fragmentation.
Discovering differences in how these metrics portray fragmentation may provide us
with a clearer picture of forest fragmentation in Vermont and aid policy makers,
managers, and researchers who utilize these metrics in the future. Second, we will
evaluate five social indicator sets in the context of our forest fragmentation
indices. These social indicator sets include measures of 1) land use; 2)
sustainability, 3) extended gap analysis, 4) stratification, and 5) market
clusters.