CDAE 264 - Risk Analysis and Forecasting Procedures
Spring 2005, L/L CM 315
Tuesday, Thursday 11am - 12:15pm
Instructor: Dr. Chyi-lyi (Kathleen) Liang
Office:
Department of Community Development and Applied Economics
Morrill
Hall 103 C
Phone:
656-0754
e-mail: CLIANG@zoo.uvm.edu
Office hours: Wednesday 9am – 11am
Thursday 2pm –
3pm
By appointment
Teaching Assistant JiaJia Huang, CDAE MS graduate student
Office
hours: Monday, Thursday, 1pm to 3pm
By appointment
- call 6568289
Objectives:
The purpose of this course is to
help students to gain more advanced knowledge in modeling procedures related to risks of current agricultural and resource markets. Topics covered in this course include -
P
review of statistics
and basic theories for demand and supply
P
introduction to risk
P
discuss relationship
between risk, price, demand, and supply for different commodities in
agricultural and resource markets
P
applications of
statistical analysis on risk related variables
P
introduce commodity
futures and option markets
MicroSoft EXCEL and its
applications to modeling procedures will be the required computer package in
this course (For graduate students, SAS program will be required). No other
computer programs will be allowed.
Course contents and teaching
materials will be combined with EXCEL programs, so that students can learn both
theories and hands-on applications.
At the end of the semester,
students will be expected to
P
develop critical
thinking and understand the relationship between risks and associated factors
in agricultural and resource markets.
P
gain advanced
knowledge about the variations in prices, demand, and supply.
P
identify
decision-making strategies relating to risks associated with agricultural and
resources markets.
P
know how to formulate
analytical schemes in decision making, apply statistics to find estimated
solutions, and provide policy recommendations.
Methodologies to be Covered
P
Intermediate/Advanced
Microeconomic theory
P
Statistics
<
descriptive statistics
<
confidence interval
estimation
<
hypothesis tests
<
Simple Regression
<
Multiple Regression
Course Textbook: There
is no required textbook for this course.
Students are required to take clear notes following the instructor=s lectures. Reading
materials will be assigned in class and will be on reserve in the library.
Structure of the Class
Besides lectures, this course
includes hands-on activities as well as interactive discussion which will
enhance critical thinking and decision making skills.
Students are encouraged to work in
teams when taking this class, especially when we are learning statistics. Only
specially designed homework assignments and bonus quiz can be turned in by
teams with the following restrictions:
(1) you may only have 2 people in
one team when working on specially designed homework assignments.
(2) once you form a team in the
beginning of the semester, you may not change team members.
(3) if you run into difficulty to
work with your team member, you may dissolve the team with permission from Dr.
Liang. Once a team is dissolved, you may
not join or form other team and you must work alone for the rest of the
semester.
(4) members in each team should
indicate in all assignments to show equal contribution as well as willingness
of sharing the identical grades. Team members will receive identical grades
only when this agreement is attached to all assignments (no grades will be
assigned if this agreement is missing).
(5) each team should turn in your
own assignments that are unique and different from other teams or
individual. For example, you may not
have 3 or more people working on the same assignment, write down identical or
similar answers, and split into two team work.
If any identical or similar answers are found in 2 or more assignments
at the same time (including individual work or team work), every student in
those assignments will receive a zero.
Purposes to recognize teamwork and
team efforts include:
q
exercise teamwork for
real world challenges.
q
improve communication
skills, interactive learning opportunities, and self confidence.
q
two heads are better
than one!
If you prefer to work on all
homework assignments by yourself in the whole semester, that is a good option,
too.
Grades: Grades in this course are based on homework assignments,
one midterm exam, one research project, and one final exam.
Midterm Exam .........................100 points total 100 points
P during
regular class time
P cumulative
P closed
books, closed notes, allow one formula sheet
Each Homework..............approximately 20 points total
200 points
Final Exam (comprehensive)
Closed books, closed notes, allow formula
sheets..............150 points
Research
Project..............................................................................150
points
Total Scores
....................................................................................600
points
Possible grade: A (90% +)
B (89% - 80%) C (79% - 70%) D (69% - 60%) F (less than 59%)
Bonus Points (attendance points)
P
several Abonus quiz@ will be given during the regular class time.
P
some bonus questions
will be included in several homework assignments.
Class Policies:
1) All the
assignments must be turned in by the due time
Everyone has the same time and the same chance to
accomplish the assignments.
Learning time management is the most important process in
this course.
When using the computer, please be aware of the virus or
any potential risks.
Try your best to finish all the assignments on time.
a) If any emergency
happens, please contact Dr. Liang before the due date and turn in a written
report.
b) If the instructor
does not receive any notice before the due date, the instructor will not accept
any late assignment.
c) There is no
opportunity to makeup missing assignments.
2) No
make-up exams
a) If any emergency
happens, please contact Dr. Liang before the exam time and turn in written
report.
b) If the instructor does not receive any notice
before the exam date, the person who misses the exam will receive a ZERO for
that exam.
c) Bonus quiz will
be only given in regular class periods and there is no make-up quiz.
3) Please be
professional and respectful whenever and wherever you are
a) Please be quiet if you come in
late. Please let Dr. Liang know if you
need to leave early, then sit closer to the door.
b) Please always raise your hand first if you have any question.
c) Please respect everyone=s learning space and ability.
d) Please always show professional manner and respect your fellow students, audience, and instructors.
e) Please turn off your Cell Phone when classes
are in session. The entire class will decide the consequences for the person
who violates this rule.
4) if you cheat, copy assignments, or violate
the College Code of Conduct for any inappropriate behavior, the instructor will
report to the Dean=s
Office and other associated offices
immediately.
5)
each student is totally responsible
for her/his own work and her/his own grade
You
must do your best to EARN your grade in a sufficient time period
a) Please ask questions whenever you feel that you are behind.
b)
Please contact Dr. Liang or TA immediately when you are struggling or feeling
confused.
6) All the other regulations follow the
university handbook.