A Market Diffusion Analysis for Renewable Energy Options using Learning Curves

Sandia National Laboratories, 2001-2002

Project Summary

Renewable energy options face many obstacles to wide spread use. However, changes in the electricity sector, international concern over climate change, and domestic concerns about energy security provide opportunities for renewable sources to increase their market share. This movement toward increasing renewables is already evident in regions of Europe and Japan where similar energy security issues, both environmental and strategic, drive the energy production research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) of such technologies. The purpose of this study is to analyze and implement a learning-curve methodology exploring Research and Development (R&D) effectiveness among competing renewable energy producing technologies. Specifically, the study will seek to link future renewable energy costs to both cumulative capacity (the experience factor) and cumulative R&D expenditures (the learning factor) by renewable energy type.