China's Transportation System in Transition: A Simulation Model of Energy and Development

Sandia National Laboratories, 1999

Project Summary

The composition of transportation modes in China is rapidly changing to include more movement by highway. This movement toward passenger vehicle-based transport is very much like that of Taiwan, South Korea, the United States and portions of Europe. The key distinction between these development movements is the path the latter countries took, and the path China has yet to find. This project supported a detailed examination of alternative transportation development paths for China. A dynamic simulation model was designed to evaluate scenarios linked to development variables such as population growth, GDP structural change, and energy demand elasticities, and policy variables such as energy taxes, public transport investment, and vehicle technology.