GEO-REFERENCED SOCIAL ACCOUNTING

WITH APPLICATION TO INTEGRATED WATERSHED PLANNING

IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY

by

Audra Ann Nowosielski

A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate

Faculty of Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

in Partial Fulfillment of the

Requirements for the Degree of

DOCTOR of PHILISOPHY

Major Subject: Ecological Economics

ABSTRACT

Changing economic activity and patterns of human habitation have long been a cause of concern for the ecological health of the Hudson River and its tributaries. Today, economic development in the Hudson River Valley is often characterized as a battle between proponents of economy-wide growth and citizen groups concerned about the cumulative impact of incremental development on the watershed. Current development trends in the Hudson River Valley are driving the conversion of rural, agricultural and forestland to urban or industrial uses. This thesis is part of a larger study of the economic changes that lead to land use and environmental changes. It focuses specifically on the economic drivers of development in Dutchess County, an area of the lower watershed on the east bank of the Hudson, midway between New York City and the state capital of Albany. The objective was to engage the Dutchess County planning community in developing a planning model, the economic portion of which characterizes the economy with a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) referenced to a Geographical Information System (GIS). The model was used to assess economic impacts of locally relevant development scenarios including a new IBM semiconductor plant, agro-tourism, and commuting behavior. These scenarios each discuss economic changes that have land use consequences. For example, a new IBM plant will likely instigate new residential development, agro-tourism offers a way to keep land in agricultural use, and the study of commuting behavior leads to insights on how residential growth may depend on commuting patterns, as well as information on the effects of second home communities.

The final model will help stakeholders to visualize not only how economic shocks will change their communities, but also how these changes may lead to land use and cumulative environmental impact. Stakeholders will be able to visualize the trade-off between new economic growth and the possible loss of environmental character in the county, and implement appropriate policies to plan for a shared community vision of economic, social and environmental goals.