APPLYING MULTICRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS

IN PARTICIPATORY PLANNING FOR SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT

OF THE NEW YORK STATE FOREST

 

by

 

Graham L. Cox

 

A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate

Faculty of Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

In Partial Fulfillment of the

Requirements for the Degree of

DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY

Major Subject: Ecological Economics

 

ABSTRACT

 

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) represents an emerging decision aid tool in the field of ecological economics. This thesis explores the application of MCDA to participatory planning for sustainable management of the State Forest of New York. Applying the Preference Ranking Organization METHod of Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) procedure, this thesis analyses the planning process for two reforestation and multiple use (RMU) State Forest units with the aim of improving the process and the quality of unit management plans (UMPs).

The methodology included the following elements. First, goals and alternative forest management options were identified, based on the State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) draft Master Plan for State Forests. Second, sustainable forestry criteria and indicators (C&I) were adapted from the Montreal Process, an international agreement between twelve nations containing ninety percent of the world’s temperate and boreal forests. Third, alternative management scenarios were developed from selected stakeholders representing interests in the UMP process. Results include partial and complete ranking of management alternatives, Graphical Analysis for Interactive Assistance (GAIA) planes for conflict resolution, and full sensitivity analysis of scenario profiles, criteria and stakeholder weights, and stability intervals of rankings.

Results from one forest unit demonstrate that active timber management can support the dual goals of conservation and passive recreation. This is preferred over the current UMP. In the second forest unit, where planning had just begun, MCDA helped clarify stakeholder positions. The resulting profiles and preference rankings demonstrate likely management conflicts between passive and active recreational demands and protection of biodiversity. In both cases, the Montreal Process C&I need significant refinement to be relevant to broader planning goals, including recreation.

The PROMETHEE procedure, as applied through the Decision Lab 2000 software, makes explicit the issues, alternatives, and arguments that are often overlooked.  In combination with Geographical Information Systems (GIS), PROMETHEE has great potential as an internal ‘expert’ planning tool as part of broader participatory planning processes.  For future statewide use, the potential exists to couple MCDA, GIS, and participatory planning into current forest certification processes, but not without building a substantial forest database and defining more inclusive stakeholder participation processes.