DIRECTIONS:  Craft a 6-8 page, double-spaced essay in response to the following assignment. Whenever possible you should support your argument with relevant evidence drawn from class lectures, discussions, and reading assignments, being careful to reference the work of others when necessary, citing by last name and date within the text (e.g., Wayne, 2016: 86).

TRUMP’S “UNPRECEDENTED” CAMPAIGN

When Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the 2016 U.S. presidential election last month, newspapers around the globe called the event “a stunning upset” for the political establishment. That said, it also presents a serious challenge for academics, who (for the most part) failed to foresee the rise of Trump or the widespread appeal of his unconventional campaign.

In response to recent events, use the tools of political science to conduct a “postmortem,” of sorts—an essay that attempts to explain what happened and why.

Here are a few questions to get you started:

• Does Trump’s winning the Republican nomination for president undermine Cohen, et al.’s confidence in a party-driven process?

• In a world of candidate-centered campaigns, how could Trump win while having the worst favorability ratings ever measured for a national political candidate?

• Until recently, conventional wisdom had it that if the Republican party wanted to remain nationally viable, it had to improve its outreach to minorities and women. How did Trump succeed, despite continuous insults directed at those very groups?

• Can theories of social identity and racial resentment help us to understand the fragile and shifting allegiance of the white working class? Can political psychology do any better by referencing “authoritarian” tendencies among Trump supporters?

• Might those demographic trends also fit within the scope of realignment theory, as the nation moves gradually away from what Lind calls a decades old “culture war” towards a new “border war”? In short, are we witnessing the disintegration of the Democratic and Republican parties, as we have long known them?

• Notice, too, how political scientists emphasize the importance of campaign tactics, the “ground game” for voter turnout, and the necessity of advertising dollars. How was Trump able to win, despite obvious deficits in those areas, especially when compared to Clinton? Why did his poor debate performances and his many gaffes not doom his campaign, as it would have with virtually any other candidate? What role did the media and its obsessive “narratives” play?   

• Finally, was Abramowitz ultimately right in his insistence that “time for change” meant time for Trump? Could Clinton have triumphed as an establishment candidate in an anti-establishment year? If so, how?  

These are suggestions only. Please do not attempt to respond to all of the prompts listed above. Feel free to chart your own path. The argument you make is yours alone.

In preparing your work, you should draw liberally upon our class materials (e.g., lecture notes, required reading assignments, PowerPoint slides). You may NOT consult any outside source without my permission, except those reference materials listed below.

• Election results, by state (The New York Times)

• Data on voter turnout (United States Election Project)

• Exit polls (The New York Times)

• Presidential debate transcripts (The American Presidency Project)

• Campaign finance data (The Center for Responsive Politics)

DEADLINE: This assignment must be turned in no later than 1:30 PM on Monday, December 12. No extensions will be granted, and late papers will be penalized. No file attachments, please. Only paper copies will be accepted.