Assessing the future Northern Forest through the lens of seedling survival and sapling recruitment: Predictions of seedling gain
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- Forest Ecosystem Monitoring Cooperative
- Address:
705 Spear Street
South Burlington, Vermont 05403
United States of America
Phone: (802) 391-4135
Email: femc@uvm.edu
Website: www.uvm.edu/femc
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Regeneration of key tree species in the Northern Forest is threatened by a suite of factors including climate change, non-native pests and pathogens, disturbance and herbivory. Concerns over tree regeneration have led to calls to rethink forest management strategies including applications of different silvicultural systems, treatments to increase seedling survival and tree planting. In this project, funded by the Northeastern States Research Cooperative, we are building upon recently-developed methods that use a dataset from the nationwide forest inventory (FIA) in which tree seedling are tallied within six height classes. These methods are being applied to plots throughout the Northern Forest to assess what current tree regeneration patterns and trends imply for forest compositional shifts, future carbon storage and climate resilience.
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- Anthony D'Amato: dataset_eml_peoplecontentprovider
- Melissa Pastore: dataset_eml_peoplecontentprovider
- Lucas Harris: dataset_eml_peoplecontentprovider
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- dataset_eml_datatabletitle: Predictions of seedling gain
- dataset_eml_datatablestartdate: 2024-07-01
- dataset_eml_datatabledescription: Likelihood of gains in seedling abundance under scenarios of increased and decreased white-tailed deer abundance Predicted likelihood of gains in tree seedling abundance in forest inventory subplots throughout the northeastern USA as described by Harris et al. (2025). Points are approximate (i.e., fuzzed and swapped) locations of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Regeneration Indicator plots. Predictions are at the subplot level, given on a 0-1 scale by tree species or palatability class (low-moderate or high) and seedling height class ("size" and "class"). Predictions are provided under observed ("p_obs") conditions, 50% decreased/increased deer abundance ("p_m50" and "p_p50"), and 50% decreased/increased deer abundance combined with 50% decreased snow depth ("p_m50_snow" and "p_p50_snow"). Percentage change in likelihood between observed conditions and each scenario is also given. This work was supported by the Northeastern States Research Cooperative through funding made available by the USDA Forest Service.
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- dataset_eml_datatablephysicalobjectname: VMC.1839.4111
- dataset_eml_datatabledatatype: mySQL
- dataset_eml_datatablecitation: Harris, L. B., Pastore, M. A., & D’Amato, A. W. (2025). Effects of browsing by white-tailed deer on tree regeneration vary by ontogeny and palatability in forests of the northeastern USA. Forest Ecology and Management, 593, 122906. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2025.122906
- dataset_eml_datatableonlinedistribution: https://www.uvm.edu/femc/CI4/data/archive/project/northern-forest-seedling-survival-and-sapling-recruitment/dataset/predictions-seedling-gain
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