A capacity crowd of 900 packed Ira Allen Chapel late Monday afternoon to hear New York Times columnist and two-time Pulitzer Prize winning author Nicholas Kristof address what he called “the most important thing happening in the world today,” the rise of China.

Speaking to the many students in the audience, he said, “… your parents’ or your grandparents' generation were profoundly affected by Europe. Your own generation and that of your descendents, in the same way, is going to be profoundly shaped by Asia and … especially by China.”

The occasion was the 32nd George D. Aiken Lecture, UVM’s annual public policy lecture series, which brought Kristof to UVM for the day on Oct. 1. The culmination of the visit, which included a meeting with UVM’s chapter of STAND, Students Taking Action Now: Darfur, was the 5 o’clock speech, titled “The Promise and Price of Modernization in China.”

Kristof’s wide ranging talk, delivered in an engaging, off-the-cuff style, and the subsequent Q&A, held the audience rapt for more than 90 minutes.

Kristof began by pointing out that the rise of China was really the recovery of China, since the country was pre-eminent among nations throughout much of human history. Its inevitable reclaiming of the top spot in the world economy, although a destabilizing influence on the established order, was not without benefit. Its own economic growth and the influence it has had on the economies of surrounding nations have lifted more than 300 million people out of poverty, Kristof said.

The furious economic growth China has seen in recent years isn’t sustainable, however, said Kristof. A number of factors should combine to slow it down, including the drying up of cheap labor, as peasants from the country are absorbed into the workforce; currency issues; an aging population; public relations issues that will force the country to create safer but more expensive products; and the environmental crisis engulfing the nation, which will be costly to address.

To illustrate the enormity of the country’s environmental issues, Kristof told the story of visiting what Chinese had told him was a “haunted village.” Children there were born with birth defects and mental deficiencies and didn’t grow normally, villagers died prematurely, and even goats ran “around in circles and butting their heads against trees.”

“It turned out that a fertilizer factory had opened up just upstream from this village,” he said. “It was pumping out effluent, and the only source of water for this village had been contaminated … more and more across China, you see situations like that. The environmental situation in China is a catastrophe.”

Kristof foresees an easing of tensions between China’s totalitarian regime and its citizens, if not a full flowering of democracy. Since Tiananmen Square, Kristof said, the government has been fearful of a populist revolt, and citizens, in turn, have been fearful of government reprisals, leading to an uneasy stalemate. Tensions are now beginning to wind down, so much so that 80,000 protests were staged in the country last year.

During the Q&A period, Kriistof was asked where U.S.- China relations are headed in the next 10 years.

“In general, my feeling is there will be more tension,” he said. Democrats, likely to come to power in the next election, will probably escalate trade friction with China. There will likely be security issues on top of that — in the western Pacific as “subs bump into each other” or aircraft potentially cause problems like the spy plane incident of 2002.

He also worries that a bloody confrontation — in Tibet, for instance, where protesting students may incite a government crackdown — will exacerbate issues with the west, and that the likely rise of nationalism in China will be no less easy to manage than the current totalitarian regime.

“As China becomes a more important power, real tensions will escalate,” he concluded. “It’s going to be very, very important to understand China so we can resolves those tensions.”

Making brief remarks before Kristof were Juefei Wang, director of UVM’s Asian Studies Outreach Program, College of Arts and Sciences Dean Eleanor Miller, and UVM President Daniel Mark Fogel.

Miller, whose college co-sponsored this year’s Aiken lecture, presented Kristof with a hand carved “humble bowl” made from wood in UVM’s Jericho Research Forest as a token of thanks and appreciation.

Also part of this year’s Aiken Lectures is a special Social Change in China film series, with screenings taking place Oct. 15, 22, and 29 and Nov. 5 at the Fleming Museum.

The George D. Aiken Lectures are a permanent tribute to the former dean of the United States Senate and governor of Vermont for his many years of service to the people of the state and nation. Held annually at UVM since 1975, the lectures provide a platform for distinctive views on critical American issues and comprise the university’s major annual public policy forum. The lectures are sponsored by Continuing Education and a rotating group of UVM’s academic units.