# Calendar Event

## Risk Assessment for Pyroclastic Flows

Dr. James Berger, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University.

The problem of risk assessment for rare natural hazards -- such as volcanic pyroclastic flows -- is addressed, and illustrated with the Soufriere Hills Volcano on the island of Montserrat. Assessment is approached through a combination of

mathematical computer modeling, statistical modeling of geophysical data, and extreme-event probability computation.

A mathematical computer model of the natural hazard is used to provide the needed extrapolation to unseen parts of the hazard

space. Statistical modeling of the available geophysical data is needed to determine the initializing distribution for exercising the

computer model. In dealing with rare events, direct simulations involving the computer model are prohibitively expensive, so

computation of the risk probabilities requires a combination of adaptive design of computer model approximations (emulators)

and rare event simulation.

To request accommodations such as seating, interpreting, etc. for this event please contact Conference and Event Services at conferences@uvm.edu or 802-656-5665 in advance of the event.

For more information, contact Meghan Kelly, Department of Mathematics and Statistics at (802) 656-2940 or jbuzas@uvm.edu.