1.
Madrid Process
2. Oslo Breakthrough
3. Breakdown in 2000
I. Oslo Breakthrough
1) PLO -- why the change
-part of a general PLO trend from the mid-1980's toward negotiated settlement. Loss of any practical military option after the Lebanese war.
-intifada: responding to popular demands in West Bank and Gaza, getting in front of a new leadership corps (UNLU were not from the notability that PLO relied upon, or from old-line PLO activitists. Generational change.) Madrid process opens up possibility that PLO might be sidelined.
-PLO losing ground to Islamic groups (HAMAS emerging, also with a new generation of leadership), losing financial assets by which to maintain political position
-Arab alignment after the Gulf War -- Egypt, Saudi and Syria, all going down the peace path. Worry about being left out. Madrid Conference of October 1991 -- Palestinians in the Jordanian delegation, but PLO formally frozen out.
-end of the Cold War: Soviet Union not there to back up the PLO with money, guns and political support. US power in the region at a height, have to deal with it.
2) Israel -- why the change
-failure of the Likud strategy in the 1980's of neutralizing Egypt, dominating Lebanon and through this damping down threat of Palestinian nationalism. Intifada changing the dynamics of Arab-Israeli conflict back to a communal Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and impinging directly on Israeli voters
a) Israeli elections of June 1992: 44 Labor seats, 32 Likud seats. Meretz (CRM, Mapam, Shinui) gets 12 seats. This after the downfall of National Unity government in March 1990 over splits on peace process (Labor fails in its effort to form a coalition; Likud forms most right-wing gov. in Israeli history).
-fear of growth of Islamic movements in area as a whole; favorable regional configuration for negotiations, with Iraq out of the military picture; favorable international situation
-Clinton Administration's unwillingness to move -- push the parties together.
II. Chronology of intervening years
-October 1991: Madrid Conference. Palestinians represented in Jordanian delegation.
-September 1993: Oslo Accord; Declaration of Principles between Israel and PLO signed in Washington.
-May 1994: Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza and Jericho.
-October 1994: Jordan-Israel peace treaty
-December 1995: Israeli military withdrawal from other major West Bank towns and villages
-January 1996: Elections for the Palestinian National Authority
-March 1996: series of suicide bombs in Israel
-April 1996: Israeli operation "Grapes of Wrath" in Lebanon; PNC amends charter to drop call for Israeli destruction
-May 1996: Israeli elections, Likud in power (Netanyahu over Peres in direct election of PM; Likud 32, Labor 34, Shas 10, Meretz 9, NRP 9, Israel B'Aliyeh 7)
-September 1996: Tunnel incident in Jerusalem
-January 1997: Hebron redeployment
-March 1997: Har Homa/Abu Ghanim settlement, suicide bomber in Tel Aviv kills 4, large-scale clashes in West Bank towns
-October 1998: Wye Plantation agreement.
-December 1998: Clinton to Gaza
-January 1999: Netanyahu calls for early elections, scheduled for May 1999, for Knesset and PM.
-January 1999: King Hussein replaces CP Hassan with his eldest son Abdallah
-February 1999: King Hussein dies, Abdallah becomes king
II. Failure of the Peace Process -- 2000
1) Syrian track
--I was very optimistic about the course of the negotiations between
Syria and Israel. Those negotiations basically were about Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights, and security arrangements in southern Lebanon that would allow for an Israeli withdrawal from there. Barak promised to be out of south Lebanon in one year, and he clearly wanted to do it as part of a package deal with Syria. The Syrians seemed very ready -- interviews with Patrick Seale, Asad giving signals that he was ready to deal with Barak.
--Dec. 1999: Barak-Shar'a meeting at the White House; Jan. 2000 meetings at Shepardstown between Israeli and Syrian delegations led by Barak and Shar'a. March 2000 summit between Asad and Clinton. I thought the deal was clinched.
--What were the sticking points? The major one seemed to be a strip of territory along the eastern shore of the Sea of Galilee -- the difference between the 1923 border drawn by the mandatory powers and the 1967 lines, before the war. At spaces this is just a few hundred meters.
--Key was water control for Israel, but this should not have been an insuperable issue: Syrians did not really need the water. (Barak and Shar'a quotes). Other issues apparently were settled -- international monitors on Golan a major one.
--Syrians accuse US of simply bringing an Israeli proposal, and one that backed off of earlier Israeli commitments made by PM Rabin and confirmed by Barak to the Israeli cabinet, of withdraw to the June 4 1967 line. Said Clinton told Asad that he had to help Barak domestically. US leaked that they thought that Syria had basically agreed to 1923 line (Clinton-Asad story).
--Criticism of US tactics by Sec. Baker. President should not just carry other people's proposals, but should be coming with a US proposal that would be harder for each side to turn down.
--Subsequent events set the process back: Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon in May, and breakdown of SLA. Removes an Israeli incentive for a deal with Syria, as long as south Lebanon stays quiet. And Asad's death in June 2000.
2) Palestinian track
--Again, reasons for optimism: once Barak is in office, there is very
quickly (Sept. 1999) an agreement on implementing the Wye River accords. There are set-backs, like a week of Israeli-Palestinian violence in late May 2000, but a continued commitment on both sides to keep the talks going. September 2000 was the end of the five year transition period agreed to in the Oslo, Washington and Cairo accords back in 1993 and 1994, and final status issues were due to be settled by then.
--That deadline, plus the waning days of the Clinton Administration, pushed the parties to the Camp David summit of July 2000. The Israelis were clearly more enthusiastic about going. Palestinians complained that not enough preparation had been done, but Arafat agreed to go.
--News reports indicate that the sticking point of the negotiations was Jerusalem; that other issues about water, borders, right of return of Palestinian refugees were basically sovled, or solvable (4 committees at Camp David were borders, security, refugees and Jerusalem). Palestinian sources have indicated that these issues were not as close to solution as American and Israeli sources might have thought. Abu Mazin (Mahmoud Abbas), who is Arafat's #2 man in the PLO structure, presented a "political report" to the PLO Central Committee meeting in Gaza recently (the one that delayed declaration of the Palestinian state) that set out the Palestinian side's view of where the negotiations are (al-Hayat, September 11, 2000, p. 8):
a) Jerusalem: Israeli proposal was to give the Palestinians sovereignty on
some of the towns near the borders of municipal Jerusalem. The sections of municipal Jerusalem populated by Palestinians outside the walls would be under Israeli sovereignty, but enjoy self-government under Palestinian institutions. Within the walls, there would be Israeli sovereignty, with the Christian and Muslim quarters having a special arrangement under Israeli sovereignty. The Palestinian presidency could have an extra-territorial headquarters inside the walls. The haram al-sharif under Israeli sovereignty and Palestinian administration.
The Palestinian position as stated by Abu Mazin is: return of all of East Jerusalem to Palestinian sovereignty. The Jewish Quarter and the Western Wall under Palestinian sovereignty but Israeli administration. There are indications, however, that the Palestinians were willing to accept that Israeli neighborhoods in the eastern part of Jerusalem would be included in Israel, in exchange for territorial concessions elsewhere.
b) Security: The Israeli position called for a 12 year transition period for
the Jordan Valley (safeguarding settlements there), plus some Israeli military posts for early warning. The Palestinian position was an acceptance of an international or a multinational force in the Jordan Valley, but no Israeli positions.
c) borders: Israeli position -- 15% of Jordan river under Israeli
sovereignty, and 15% of Dead Sea. 10.5% of the West Bank to Israeli sovereignty. Palestinian position: mutual transfers and border adjustments, not to exceed 2% of land area of West Bank.
d) Refugees: A very sticky issue. The Israeli position is that refugees
should be compensated from an international fund. No right of return for Palestinian refugees to Israel, but permission for a small number (10 thousand over 15 years) to come to Israeli for family reunification and humanitarian reasons. Consideration of Israeli claims to compensation for Jews driven out of Arab lands. The Palestinian position requires Israel to accept responsibility for the refugee issue; implementation of UNGA 194, which calls for right of return to Israel, no linkage between Jewish claims on Arab states and Palestinian refugee claims. Full compensation for those who do not take up right of return. Some indication (Shibley's article) that this right of return could be implemented in the Palestinian state, but Abu Mazin does not state this.
--Taba negotiations try to narrow the gaps, as does the final Clinton “non-paper” of January 2001. Gaps are narrowed on territorial issues, even on Jerusalem itself. But not enough on either refugees or Jerusalem to solve the issue. Then amidst a new Palestinian uprising, Sharon is elected PM.
So the most delicate and important issues of the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians have been fully engaged, but not solved. First time that Jerusalem and refugees were directly addressed in official negotiations. A step forward, but certainly not a solution.
3) Breakdown with revival of intifada and Sharon’s election in 2001.
2000-02 Chronology
-May 1999: Barak defeats Netanyanhu
-July 1999: Barak forms government including Shas, left parties, others, with 75 seat majority in Knesset (Arab parties, holding 10 seats, not in government): Barring unforeseeable changes, the Government's composition is: Barak's Labor, renamed One Israel, which has 26 seats; Shas; the leftist Meretz, the Center Party; the Russian Yisrael B'Aliya; the settlers' National Religious Party, and the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism.
-September 1999: Palestinian-Israeli agreement on implementing Wye River accord; Jordan arrests Hamas leaders based in Amman
-December 1999: Barak-Shar'a meeting at the White House
-January 2000: Shephardstown Talks between Syria and Israel; Israel and PA agree to second and third stage withdrawals mandated by Wye Accord
-February 2000: Syrian-Israeli talks suspended, as Syria demands commitment to June 4 line and Hizballah heats up south Lebanon (7 Israeli soldiers killed) with Israeli retaliation strikes on Lebanese civilian infrastructure. "Deadline" for Israeli-PA "framework" agreement passes without a document.
-April 2000: Clinton-Asad summit in Geneva fails.
-late May 2000: sustained week of Israeli-Palestinian clashes, most serious since the intifada. Collapse of SLA positions in "security zone" as Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon; Hizballah militia take up positions in abandoned bases.
-June 2000: death of President Asad
-July 2000: 2 weeks of negotiation at Camp David between Arafat and Barak end in failure
-late Septempber 2000: widespread fighting in WB and Gaza after Sharon visit to Temple Mount, with over two thousand injured. Includes violence within Israel between Israeli Arabs and Israeli Jews.
-mid-October 2000 Clinton brings together Arafat, Barak, Mubarak and King Abdallah in Sharm al-Shaykh to try to put a stop to the fighting. Cease-fire does not hold; Barak on Oct. 22 puts peace process "on hold."
-Dec. 9: Barak resigns, early elections to be held in February. Elections only for PM; Knesset does not dissolve.
-December 2000-January 2001: Clinton "bridging proposals".
-Jan. 2, 2001: Reuters reports since beginning of intifada that 379 people have been killed, including more than 330 Arabs (including Israeli Arabs) and more than 40 Israeli Jews. Reported on NYTimes website, Feb. 1, 2001.
-Feb. 6, 2001: Sharon beats Barak, 61.7% to 32.7%.
-Feb. 8, 2001: AP report on NYT website lists casualties of the Al-Aqsa intifada as: 385 people have been killed in clashes and attacks, including 323 Palestinians, 13 Israeli Arabs, 48 other Israelis and one German doctor.
-Feb. 26, 2001: Labor agrees to join Sharon coalition government.
-March 7, 2001: Sharon presents national unity government to Knesset. Includes Labor, Shas, other smaller parties. Government has 73 seats behind it, and another 29 seats lined up in support, though not in government. Knesset ends direct election for PM, returns to single vote, party list system.
-Washington Post web site, March 16, 2001: 427 dead -- 351 Palestinians, 51 Israeli Jews, 19 others.
-April 17-18 (app.), 2001: Jordanian FM presents Egyptian-Jordanian "non-paper" to de-escalate violence and return to negotiations (text in al-Hayat around that date). Includes call for suspension of settlement activity. Sharon rejects.
-September 12, 2001 WP: at least 569 Pals and 165 Israelis killed since this intifada began.
-March 12, 2002: U.S. sponsors UNSC resolution 1397, approved with only a Syrian abstention, when affirms "a vision of a region where two states, Israel and Palestine, live side by side within secure and recognized borders."
-March 28, 2002: Arab summit meeting in Beirut adopts Saudi plan, calling for "normal relations" with Israel in exchange for return to 1967 boundaries, Palestinian state with capital in Jerusalem (some ambiguity on what that means -- in Arabia "al-Quds"; in English "East Jerusalem"), "just solution" to refugee issue based on UN resolutions.
-Late March-Early April 2002: Israeli re-occupation of WB.
-May 2, 2002: US announces new peace conference for summer 2002.
-October 2002: US takes “roadmap” proposal developed by the “quartet” (US, EU, Russia and UN) to region.
-October 30, 2002: Labor quits coalition government.