DIRECTIONS:  Craft a 6-8 page, double-spaced essay in response to the following assignment.  Whenever possible you should support your argument with relevant evidence drawn from class lectures, discussions, and reading assignments, being careful to reference the work of others when necessary, citing by last name and date within the text (e.g., Hershey, 2007: 38).

Please note, while you are encouraged to draw upon any relevant class materials (e.g., class notes, assigned books and articles), you may not consult any outside source without my permission.   

The 49 Percent Nation

In 2001, Michael Barone famously referred to the United States as a “49 Percent Nation.” In that essay he said:  “Both parties have strong incentives to amass a popular majority, and have striven mightily to do so.  But in 2000, both failed.  The Republicans failed to reproduce the Reagan-Bush majority, and the Democrats failed to produce a Clinton-Gore majority.  At the beginning of the 1990s, it was conventional wisdom that the Republicans had a lock on the presidency and the Democrats had a lock on Congress.  In 1995, some thought the Democrats had a lock on the presidency and the Republicans had a lock on Congress.  Now no one has a lock on either…”

With that in mind, your task in this assignment is to respond to the following question:  Presuming that both the Democratic and Republican parties want to break the deadlock in their favor, which has more reason to be optimistic about their chances heading into the next presidential campaign?  For example, is President Bush’s 51-48 percent victory over John Kerry in 2004 evidence of a new and decisive Republican realignment, or is the small margin of his win proof of the continued unpredictability of U.S. electoral politics?

You may approach this assignment in any number of creative ways, but you should start by thinking through these basic issues:

• What are the relative strengths and weaknesses of each party?

• Where have the parties placed themselves on the ideological spectrum?  What problems and opportunities do those positions present when attracting voters?

• Which segments of the voting population are most likely to respond favorably to the Democratic Party?  What about the Republican Party?

• Do shifting demographics in the U.S. population favor one party over the other?

• To what extent do laws and institutions matter (e.g., the “rules of the game”)?  Remember, U.S. elections are decided by plurality vote, using a winner-take-all system.

• Is voter turnout likely to play a role in deciding the next presidential election?  Why and how?

• What other factors are likely to persuade voters in casting their ballots, and do those considerations, on balance, favor one party over the other?   

Finally, here are some general guidelines to keep in mind:

First, the questions raised above are intended to spark ideas.  I do not expect you to respond to each in detail in your essay.   Your essay should have a clear and persuasive thesis, but the evidence you use to support it is entirely up to you.

Second, the argument you craft should be confined to subjects we have discussed in class so far.  At this stage, we have studied political parties and political participation at length, and so I will expect you to use draw upon that material in generous and imaginative ways.  On the other hand, I do not expect a detailed media strategy, or a discussion of the mechanics of election campaigns (including factors such as campaign finance).  There will be time enough to approach those topics later in the semester.

Third, please keep in mind that this is not an opinion essay, and it is not a “wish list” of issues you would personally like to see a political party address.   What you should provide is a sound argument that assesses  a party’s strengths and mitigates its weaknesses in the eyes of the electorate.

Good luck!

DEADLINE:  This assignment is due in class on Wednesday, October 10 Monday, October 15.  No extensions will be granted, and late papers will be penalized.

Final Paper

DIRECTIONS:  Craft a 6-8 page, double-spaced essay in response to the following assignment. Whenever possible you should support your argument with relevant evidence drawn from class lectures, discussions, and reading assignments, being careful to reference the work of others when necessary, citing by last name and date within the text (e.g., Jacobsen, 2003: 86).
 
Please note, while you are encouraged to draw upon any relevant class materials over the next week (e.g., class notes, assigned books and articles), you may not consult any outside source without my permission.

Election Reform

In the January 2004 editorial you read at the beginning of term, the The New York Times declared:

"The morning after the 2000 election, Americans woke up to a disturbing realization: our electoral system was too flawed to say with certainty who had won. Three years later, things may actually be worse. If this year's presidential election is at all close, there is every reason to believe that there will be another national trauma over who the rightful winner is, this time compounded by troubling new questions about the reliability of electronic voting machines.  This is no way to run a democracy."

Throughout the semester we have identified a number of systemic problems that seem to plague the U.S. electoral system, including: 

• Comparatively low rates of voter turnout;

• Negative media coverage of candidates that encourages voters to see their choice as the “lesser of two evils”;

• High rates of reelection for incumbents in Congress;

• A campaign finance system riddled with loopholes;

• A weak party system that allows elections to become candidate-centered campaigns, and not contests fought over issues and platforms;

• Rules on reapportionment and redistricting that allow politics to warp representation;

• Ballots that allow voters to select only their top choice, while ignoring how they might rank the remaining candidates;

• A frontloaded primary system that favors early wins in unrepresentative states like Iowa and New Hampshire;

• Campaign advertising based more on emotion than substance;

• A method for selecting presidents that, at times, reverses the popular vote winner, and frequently negates the role of third-party candidates;

Reflect broadly upon this list, and craft an essay that responds to these issues.  What problems might need to be fixed?  In what ways might we fix those problems?   Should they be fixed?

Good luck!

DEADLINE:  This assignment must be turned in no later than 4:00 PM on Friday, December 7.  No extensions will be granted, and late papers will be penalized.

Papers may be sent to me via e-mail (using a file attachment), but please do not consider your paper safely submitted until you receive a response from me acknowledging it.