CURRENT NUCLEAR STATUS

USA-RUSSIA-CHINA NUCLEAR STOCKPILES

CURRENT NUCLEAR STATUS OF NATIONS

JOHN CIRINCIONE, Carnegie Non-proliferation Project, 2000, REPAIRING THE REGIME, "The international non-proliferation regime" // VT2002 acs p. 303-304

NUCLEAR-WEAPON STATES China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States

Each of these five states originally declared its nuclear-weapons program and was recognized under the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a nuclear-weapon state because it had tested a nuclear weapon prior to January 1, 1967. Estimated total nuclear warhead stockpiles: United States, 12,070; Russia, 22,500; United Kingdom, 260; France, 450; China, 400.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in late 1991, nuclear weapons remained on the territory of many of the new independent states. Strategic nuclear weapons remained in three besides Russia: Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. Russia was recognized as the Soviet Union's sole nuclear-weapon-state successor. All tactical nuclear weapons were withdrawn to Russia by June 1992. Russia assumed control over all Soviet nuclear weapons, and all strategic nuclear weapons were withdrawn to Russia by November 1996--completing an unprecedented denuclearization process (see renunciations below).

NON-NPT NUCLEAR-WEAPON STATES India, Israel, Pakistan

Both India and Pakistan conducted nuclear explosives tests in May 1998 and declared themselves nuclear-weapon states. Neither is an NPT member, and neither is recognized by the NPT or other international treaties as a nuclear-weapon state. Neither is believed to have deployed nuclear weapons as of June 1998, but India is considered to be able to assemble sixty to seventy weapons, and Pakistan about fifteen weapons, on short notice. Israel, which also is not an NPT member, has not declared its nuclear weapon capability but is believed to have an operational arsenal of over one hundred weapons.

HIGH-RISK STATES

Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea

All are suspected of seeking nuclear weapons but are currently subject to international controls and technological constraints. Although these states are party to the NPT and have denied seeking nuclear weapons, their non-proliferation commitments are still considered suspect. North Korea is closest to having nuclear weapons; it agreed to freeze and ultimately dismantle its nuclearweapons program under the October 1994 U.S.-North Korean Agreed Framework; it may have separated enough weapon-grade material for a nuclear device. Iran is eight to ten years from nuclear weapons-but could accelerate its program if nuclear assets leaked from the former Soviet Union. Iraq's extensive nuclear program was dismantled by UN inspectors, but clandestine procurement efforts and nuclear-weapons-related research probably continue. Libya has an extremely limited nuclear infrastructure.

RENUNCIATIONS Algeria, Argentina, Belarus, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Romania, South Africa, Ukraine

South Africa dismantled its arsenal of six nuclear weapons in the early 1990s and signed the NPT in 1991; the IAEA has verified complete dismantlement of all nuclear devices. Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine fulfilled earlier commitments to non-nuclear weapon status and cooperated with Russia's removal of all strategic and tactical nuclear weapons located on their territory after the Soviet Union collapsed. The three joined the NPT as nonnuclear-weapon states and opened all of their nuclear facilities to IAEA inspections by the end of 1996. Argentina and Brazil each brought into force the Treaty of Tlatelolco and agreed to implement a system of comprehensive IAEA and bilateral inspections; Argentina acceded to the NPT in February 1995. Algeria acceded to the NPT in January 1995. Romania, under the Ceausescu regime, apparently pursued a nuclear-weapons-development program that included experimental plutonium extraction not subject to IAEA monitoring; after Ceausescu's overthrow in 1989, the lliescu government terminated the program.

ABSTAINING COUNTRIES

Australia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and Taiwan

All are countries with a significant industrial base and at least one commercial -scale nuclear facility. Several had seriously explored a nuclear-weapons option 'in the 1960s of 1970s, but all have signed the NPT as non-nuclear weapon states, have accepted comprehensive IAEA inspections, and are believed to be in compliance with their NPT obligations.

SUMMARY OF TREATIES WHICH REDUCE THE DANGER POSED BY WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (1970)

Prevents the transfer of nuclear weapons to non nuclear weapons states. Existing nuclear weapons states pledge not to use nuclear weapons against a non nuclear weapons state unless that state is aligned with a nuclear weapons states. All parties to eventually eliminate nuclear weapons. Treaty indefinitely extended in 1995.

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (1989) - START I

United States and Soviet Union reduce nuclear stockpiles by 40 percent, to about 6,500 per side.

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (1993) - START II

United States and Soviet Union reduce nuclear stockpiles to 3,000 -3,500 per side. Eliminated multiple independent re-entry vehicles (MIRVs).

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (not negotiated) - START III

United States and Soviet Union have committed to reduce nuclear stockpiles to 2,000 - 2,500 per side.

Chemical Weapons Convention (1993)

Prohibits the development, production, stockpiling and use of toxic chemicals as a weapon. Will eliminate approximately 40,000 metric tons of chemical weapons in Russia. Ratified by over 100 nations, including Russia, China and Iran.

Biological Weapons Convention (1972)

Prohibits of the development, production and stockpiling of biological weapons. Negotiations underway to create a strong enforcement regime.