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SCIENCE Magazine: "Is There a Way to Predict 'Random Violence' in War?"
- 09-07-2011
- By Kerime Barbara Toksu
In military planning, it's important to be able to estimate not only the number of fatalities but how often attacks that result in fatalities will take place. "Pattern in Escalations in Insurgent and Terrorist Activity," a study by researchers including Brian Tivnan -- a UVM Complex Systems Center affiliate and chief engineer in Modeling & Simulation for MITRE -- uncovered a simple dynamical pattern that may be used to estimate the escalation rate and timing of fatal attacks.
The study was published in the July 2011 issue of Science magazine and covered by Science Now:
The Taliban-backed suicide bombing that left 21 dead in a hotel in Kabul on Tuesday appeared to come out of nowhere. Insurgent attacks on coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan have also proved unpredictable, with weeks or even months between one burst of deadly fighting and the next. But according to a new study, attacks that seem sporadic in the beginning can begin to show a pattern as the aggressors refine their methods. The finding may provide a way for military leaders to gauge the timing of future attacks in a conflict, helping them allocate troops, weapons, and resources more safely and efficiently. The research may even lead to ways of anticipating such seemingly random events as suicide bombings.Read more...
