SCIENCE Magazine: "Is There a Way to Predict 'Random Violence' in War?"
- By Kerime Barbara Toksu
In military planning, it's important to be able to estimate not only the number of fatalities but how often attacks that result in fatalities will take place. "Pattern in Escalations in Insurgent and Terrorist Activity," a study by researchers including Brian Tivnan -- a UVM Complex Systems Center affiliate and chief engineer in Modeling & Simulation for MITRE -- uncovered a simple dynamical pattern that may be used to estimate the escalation rate and timing of fatal attacks.
The study was published in the July 2011 issue of Science magazine and covered by Science Now: