Adaptive Decision Making and Adaptive Management:
   Value of Forecast Information and Communication of Uncertain Forecasts

This project is focused on assessing the value of forecast information, with a focus on weather and climate forecasts. Recently, experimental survey questions were added to 2010 Vermonter Poll to test various hypotheses about the impact of ideology and education on the interpretation of uncertainty in climate change forecasts.

Relevant papers and presentations:

Papers

• Zia, A. (In Preparation): The effects of political ideology on the public interpretation of climate change forecast uncertainty

Presentations

• Zia, A., R. Morss, and J. Lazo (2005) Socioeconomic Value of (Quantitative) Precipitation Forecasts: A Synthesis. 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/ 17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington DC, August 2005
• Lazo, J., A. Zia, R. Morss (2005) Expert Mental Modeling of the Weather Forecast System. 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/ 17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Washington DC, August 2005
• Zia, A., R. Morss, and J. Lazo (2005) Value of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Information: A Methodological Review. The 25th International Symposium of Forecasting, San Antonio TX, June 2005
• Zia, A., R. Morss, and J. Lazo (2004) Societal Value of Improved Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts: A Synthesis. Proceedings of the First THORPEX/WMO International Science Symposium, Montréal, Canada. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva December 2004
• Zia, A. and C. J. Waddick (2001) Impact of “Standard” Environmental Management Systems on Technology Forecasting. The 21st International Symposium on Forecasting, Pine Mountain, GA, June 2001