Selected current and past research
Note: This page is currently being updated
Land Use Modeling and Change Analysis
Research
Integrated Land-Use, Transportation and Environmental Modeling: Complex
Systems Approaches and Advanced Policy Applications.
A
new project funded by the
Dynamic Transportation and Land Use
Modeling. US Department of Transportation,
See http://www.uvm.edu/envnr/countymodel/ for more details
Projects Contributing to the
Modeling Urban Vegetation Dynamics in
Application of the Forest Stewardship
Program’s Spatial Analysis Project to Urban Areas Integrated with the Forest
Feedbacks between Complex Ecological and
Social Models: Urban Landscape Structure, Nitrogen Flux, Vegetation Management,
and Adoption of Design Scenarios. 2005-2007. Funded by the National Science
Foundation (Multi-institution PI Steward Pickett, Institute for Ecosystem
Studies)
A Longitudinal Analysis of the Social
Dynamics of Environmental Equity in
These grants fund research which constitute part of my role as a Co-PI for the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, a long-term ecological research (LTER) project of the National Science Foundation. Over the last year, we have collected, processed, cleaned and organized a large amount of geo-spatial data at the UVM Spatial Analysis Lab (SAL), as part of BES. These projects contribute to both BES and to the Urban Ecology Collaborative (UEC), an affiliated project that looks at urban ecological patterns and processes across several East Coast cities. Among the topics these projects look at are the socio-economic and biophysical predictors of urban private and public vegetation, methods for differentiating planed vegetation from plants established through natural succession, looking at the impacts of parks on property values and how that effect is conditioned by crime, looking at the impacts of vegetation and landscaping on property values, looking at
Ecosystem Service Research
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Spatial Ecosystem Service Value Transfer in |
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Valuing
This
project is attempting to estimate the economic value of ecosystem services in
the state of |
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Natural Hazards Policy Research:
I am lead editor of a book that is coming out in early 2007 from Elsevier Publishers, entitled “Living on the Edge: Economic, Institutional Management Perpsectives on Wildfire Hazard in the Urban Interface.” Click here for a chapter and contributor list.
See also my article entitled The Role of Disclosure
in the flood zone: Assessing the price effects of the California Natural Hazard
Disclosure Law (AB 1195). Journal of
Environmental Planning and Management. 47(1): 137-162 (email me for
reprints) and a policy report I wrote published by
Other GIS and Remote Sensing Research
Development of an object-oriented framework for classifying and inventorying human-dominated forest ecosystems. 2005-2008. MacIntire-Stennis Federal Research Funds.
Throughout the
Development of Functional Ecological Indicators
of Suburban Sprawl for the
Little by little, development is eating away at the once continuous Northern forests. While all urban development is by definition detrimental to the natural environment, some land must be developed to house people and provide places of employment and recreation. “Urban sprawl” is a term used to describe an inefficient pattern of development where the impacts are high relative to the services provided. Various authors have attempted to define indicators of sprawl based on its social and economic impacts, but few have attempted to define them primarily in terms of ecological impact. One of the challenges to this is that the ecological impacts of development are ecosystem dependent; what defines sprawl will be different in each context. The purpose of this project is to develop ecologically based and spatially-explicit indicators of suburban and ex-urban sprawl that are specific to the Northeastern Forests and that consider per capita impacts. Using existing empirical research, combined with extensive mapping and spatial analysis efforts, these indicators will serve to track the environmental impact of development relative to the number of people housed in a given area. Hence, while areas of dense development result in a high impact, their per capita impact is actually low, just as extremely sparse, rural development also has a minimal impact. However, in between those extremes, impact per capita increases until it crosses some threshold that we clearly recognize as being sprawl. This study will synthesize results of existing research, including original research that the PI is participating in at the University of Vermont, assessing the impacts of development on various metrics of environmental quality in Vermont. The specific metrics we will consider are habitat fragmentation, biodiversity and water quality. This information will serve as the basis of a mapping methodology which will be used to create two sprawl maps for Northern Vermont. The first is descriptive. It will show per capita impact, indicating where densities and spatial arrangements are most and least efficient. It will take into account densities, soils, topography, hydrography and natural communities. Two methods for creating this map will be compared. The first will use medium resolution publicly available data and easily replicable methods while the second will use proprietary high-resolution remotely sensed data with advanced image interpretation methods. If the two yield similar results this is an indication that these maps can be created in other locales without resorting to high cost methods. The second map will be prescriptive. It will show where, within the “sprawl zone” as defined in the first map, additional allocations of density should go, based on an exogenous growth forecast and local factors including proximity to existing urban centers, major highways and important natural areas, the density of neighboring residential developments, site suitability and surrounding land uses.
Linking Land Use Change, Stream Geomorphology, and Aquatic Biodiversity in a Hierarchical Classification Scheme. With Mary Watzin (PI) , Cully Hession, and William Keeton. US EPA Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Watershed Classification Grant. 2002-2005..
AND
Linking Land Use Change, Stream Geomorphology, and Aquatic Integrity in Changing Forested Landscapes. With Mary Watzin , Cully Hession, and William Keeton. Northeastern States Research Cooperative. 2002-2005.
We are developing and
evaluating a watershed and stream reach classification system based on the
relationship between land use change, river geomorphic condition, riparian
habitat fragmentation, and riverine ecological condition. The goal is a geographically independent
management tool that can be applied in a hierarchical approach, linking changes
in land use to expected changes in geomorphology and the riparian corridor, and
then linking geomorphology to aquatic ecology.
Because different factors and responses might be expected at different
scales, the classification system will explicitly address issues of scale. Our objectives are as follows: (1) Beginning at the finer scale, determine
which geomorphic classes can be consistently related to the ecological
condition of a stream reach, (2) Expanding to a coarser scale, determine what
land use metrics best predict those geomorphic classes that consistently relate
to ecological condition, (3) Evaluate the ability of our classification system
to target sites in greatest need of watershed management and stream restoration
based on current land use and geomorphology, (4) Develop and evaluate the ability
of our classification system to identify sites in need of conservation based on
predicted land use change and resulting effects on geomorphology and aquatic
ecology, and (5) Develop a general framework for the Vermont Department of
Environmental Conservation and others to use the resulting classification
system as a foundation for statewide watershed protection, management,
restoration, and education. To predict land use change, we are creating an
urban growth simulation model for Northern Vermont, which predict development
as a function of a variety of economic, spatial and environmental variables. We
are experimenting with using discrete metrics of land use change (binary pixel
values) as well as continuous measures that incorporate sub-pixel measures of
change in impervious surface. We will also use the land use change model to
conduct a policy simulation. By altering policy inputs to the model, we can see
how predicted development patterns would change and how that, in turn, would
influence watershed function.
Land Use Change in Northern Forests: Assessments and Recommendations for Conserving Biodiversity. With Drs. Therese Donovan and Alexei Voinov (Gund Institute for Ecological Economics). Northeastern States Research Cooperative, 2002-2005.
This project looks at the
impacts of urban growth and land use change on metrics of biodiversity. It
seeks to understand the connections between urban sprawl and fragmenting
habitat through a coordinated field and modeling effort. The research goal is to predict how land use
change will affect biodiversity across Vermont at multiple spatial and temporal
scales, and, based on those results, to assess the implications for
biodiversity of current and alternative land use policies. Coordinated assessments of biodiversity
across Vermont are being used to build predictive models of occurrence for a
variety of taxa. Meanwhile, urban growth
for Vermont is being simulated under a variety of policy scenarios, including
no change in current policies. For each
policy scenario, the corresponding impact on biodiversity will be
quantified. Finally, spatial
optimization methods will be used to identify land use patterns that are
optimal for conserving an array of species, subject to socio-economic
constraints. The proposed research will
result in a decision-making tool that informs stakeholders of how projected
land use change scenarios will likely affect different levels of
biodiversity. This tool will allow
policies to be driven by their potential effects on biodiversity, thereby
permitting proactive land use planning that maximizes conservation value in
this region. My role in the project is creating the urban growth/land use
change simulation and mapping the resulting fragmentation of the landscape. The
model we will use is UrbanSim, an economically-based dynamic disequilibrium
model that allows for prediction under a variety of policy scenarios.
Hayfields as sustainable habitat for grassland bird populations: Ecological and economic impacts of 'bird-friendly' hay. With Drs. Allan Strong (PI), Sid Bosworth and Terese Donovan. USDA-CSREES-IFAFS and USDA NRI. 2001-2006
This project looks at the effect of hayfield management practices in the
Champlain Valley on songbird habitat. In particular, we are looking at whether
currently utilized haying practices turn hayfields into "ecological
traps" for birds. My contributions are to: (A)to look at the economic
feasibility of farmers adopting bird-friendly haying practices and assess how
that varies with farm type, size and quality,(B)use GIS and remote sensing to
classify Champlain Valley farms by type, size, and hay productivity, (C)use GIS
to determine the extent of hayfield acreage that might serve as songbird
habitat across the Champlain Valley, and (D) model the regional economic
impacts of switching to bird-friendly management, based on the classification
of farms. We are interested in eventually looking at grassland habitat on
non-agricultural, medium to large properties, and determining whether changes
to mowing practices on these lands might be more feasible than on active
agricultural lands. More information coming soon...
Economic and Institutional Feasibility of the Vermont Forest Ecosystem Management Demonstration Project Treatments. With Dr. Cecilia Danks. Vermont Monitoring Cooperative. 2002-2003.
This seed project looks at the social, economic and institutional
feasibility of small-scale forest lot owners adopting alternative
silvilcultural management systems designed to increase forest structure
complexity. It also looks at local and regional markets and pricing for various
traditional and non-traditional forest products, assesses variability of input
costs, and attempts to determine the importance of non-market values in
informing small woodlot owner cutting decisions.
The Liana Project; a
project I worked on during and after my Master's program that looked at the
feasibility of implementing micro-industries in the Extractive Reserves of the
Brazilian Amazon centered around the sustainable harvest of rattan-like lianas
and their manufacturing into artisanal products. Publications stemming from
this research are available by sending an email request.