Syllabus:

Dynamic modeling of ecological and economic systems

MEES 613/BIOL 764/PUAF698U

3 credits, 1 afternoon per week, Thursday, 12-3 PM

(this is also a core requirement for the Ecological Economics Certificate)

Faculty:

Robert Costanza and Alexey Voinov,
with Robert Gardner, Steve Seagle, Roel Boumans, Marjan van den Belt, and Ferdinando Villa.

This course will familiarize participants with dynamic systems modeling with applications to both ecological and economic systems over a number of spatial and temporal scales. We will use STELLA, an icon-based dynamic modeling software package which is very easy to learn and use, and requires no previous math or modeling experience. STELLA runs in both the Macintosh and Windows operating systems.

The course uses a "problem based learning" format in which participants define their own modeling problem and then solve it over the course of the semester. The course will meet one afternoon a week. The first several sessions will be an introduction to dynamic systems modeling concepts and STELLA, with several worked out examples. Participants will work through example exercises, read and report on models in the current literature, and define, build, calibrate and run their own model, either alone or (preferably) in a small team. The remaining sessions will be devoted to answering questions about the ongoing modeling projects, sharing progress, and constructive feedback. Participants will be expected to produce a "publishable" project by the end of the course. Course grading will be: 25% exercises, 25% class presentations, 50% project.

The course will be offered over IVN, with instructors in College Park, Frostburg, and Solomons, Maryland. There is also a web-based supplement to the course at http://iee.umces.edu/AV/Simmod.html

Texts:

Haefner, J. W. 1997. Modeling biological systems: principles and applications. Chapman and Hall, New York.
Ford, Andrew. 1999. Modeling the environment: an introduction to systems dynamics modeling of environmental systems. Island Press. Washington, DC
STELLA manuals. High Performance Systems, Inc.
In addition, a selection of recent reprints and books will be used for selected topics

Grading:

Modeling Exercises: One week assignments designed to make certain that students are developing the capability to think in terms of systems and apply that thought within the STELLA modeling framework. Five exercises at 5% each for a total of 25% of the grade.
Discussion/Participation: Students will be expected to participate in class discussions of other student's presentations and the primary lectures. Total of 25% of grade
Modeling Project: Students are expected to build, calibrate and exercise their own model, either alone or (preferably) in a small team. They will conceptualize the problem, develop the model, parameterize the model, test the model, explore the parameter space using sensitivity analysis, and apply the model to address an hypothesis or solve a question/problem. A "publishable" write-up of the project along with a class presentation including demonstration of the model on the computer is expected by the end of the course. 50% of grade.

See also the following web sites:

This Course:
http://iee.umces.edu/AV/EDU/DMEES/
Web based course supplement: http://iee.umces.edu/AV/Simmod.html

STELLA: http://www.hps-inc.com/stella.html
Distributed Modular Spatial Ecosystem Modeling: http://iee.umces.edu/SMP/MVD/index.html#TOC
Landscape modeling in the Florida Everglades: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/erd/esr/elm.html
Integrated modeling and valuation of the Patuxent River watershed http://iee.umces.edu/PLM

Tentative schedule

Click on the class date to get more info

Class	Date	Topics	Lecturers	Readings
1.	Aug. 30	Introduction to Systems Modeling and STELLA Course Logistics Three step modeling process Modeling for consensus building	Costanza Seagle Voinov	Haefner 1997, Ch. 1-2 Hannon and Ruth 1994 Ch. 1 Ford 1999 Ch 1-9; Costanza et al. 1993 Costanza and Ruth 1997 STELLA manuals
2.	Sept. 6	Types of Models, Examples and Case Studies Model exercise 1 (Build a 1 st. var. model) Fisheries Ecosystem models Economic system models Game of life	Costanza	Hannon & Ruth 1994 Chs. 2-6 Fitz et al. 1996 Maxwell and Costanza 1993 Cornwell and Costanza 1994 Chumra et al 1992
3.	Sept. 13	Conceptualization Phase/ Modeling Philosophy Model exercise 2 (Build a 2 st. var model) Report on preliminary Project ideas	Costanza	Haefner 1997, Ch. 2-3 Senge 1990 STELLA Manual
4.	Sept. 20	Model Construction Techniques Model exercise 3 (Fix a model)	Voinov	Haefner 1997, Ch. 4-5 Hannon and Ruth 1994 Voinov and Akhremenkov 1990 STELLA Manual
5.	Sept. 27	Parameter Estimation, Calibration and Testing Model exercise 4 (Calibrate a model)	Voinov	Haefner 1997, Ch. 6-10 Oreskes et al. 1994
6.	Oct. 4	Mediated Modeling	van den Belt
7.	Oct. 11	Empirical vs. process-based models Model exercise 5 (Translate a model)	Costanza
8.	Oct. 18	Landscape Models (CELSS, ELM, PLM)	Voinov	Costanza et al., 1990 Rotmans, 1990 Voinov et al., 1999
9.	Oct. 25	Individual-Based Models (FORET) Present preliminary project models	Seagle Costanza
10.	Nov. 1	Compartment Models (CENTURY, GEM) Present preliminary project models	Boumans	Fitz, et al., 1996
11.	Nov. 8	Aggregation and Scaling Spatially Explicit Models Preliminary Project Reports and Feedback	Gardner	Haefner 1997, Ch. 15, 16 Costanza and Maxwell 1994 Gardner et al. 1982 Rastetter et al. 1992 Jarvis et al. 1986 STELLA Manual Voinov et al 1999 Costanza et al. 1990 More
12.	Nov. 15	Model complexity, modularity Questions and Answers Session	Voinov
	Nov. 22	Thanksgiving	no class
13.	Nov. 29	Final Project Reports (presentations @ 30 min each)	All
14.	Dec.6	Final Project Reports (presentations @ 30 min each)	All
	Dec.19	Last day of exams - Final Projects Due

Supplemental Reading List

Bockstael, N., R. Costanza, I. Strand, W. Boynton, K. Bell, and L. Wainger. 1995. Ecological economic modeling and valuation of ecosystems. Ecological Economics. 14:143-159.

Capra, F. 1996. The web of life. Resurgence. 178:24-29

Chmura, G. L., R. Costanza, and E. C. Kosters. 1992. Modelling coastal marsh stability in response to sea level rise: a case study in coastal Louisiana, USA. Ecological Modelling. 64:47-64

Cornwell, L. and R. Costanza. 1994. An experimental analysis of the effectiveness of an environmental assurance bonding system on player behavior in a simulated firm. Ecological Economics.11:213-226

Costanza, R. and T. Maxwell. 1994. Resolution and predictability: an approach to the scaling problem. Landscape Ecology, 9:47-57

Costanza, R., F. H. Sklar, and M. L. White. 1990. Modeling coastal landscape dynamics. BioScience 40:91-107

Costanza, R., L. Wainger, C. Folke, and K-G Mäler. 1993. Modeling complex ecological economic systems: toward an evolutionary, dynamic understanding of people and nature BioScience 43:545-555.

Ford, Andrew. 1999. Modeling the environment: an introduction to systems dynamics modeling of environmental systems. Island Press. Washington, DC

Fitz, H. C., E. B. DeBellevue, R. Costanza, R. Boumans, T. Maxwell, L. Wainger, and F. H. Sklar. 1996 Development of a general ecosystem model (GEM) for a range of scales and ecosystems. Ecological Modeling 88:263-297.

Gardner, R. H., W. G. Cale and R. V. O'Neill. 1982. Robust analysis of aggregation error. Ecology, 63: 1771-1779.

Haefner, J. W. 1997. Modeling biological systems: principles and applications. Chapman and Hall, New York.

Hannon, B. and M. Ruth. 1994. Dynamic modeling. Springer-Verlag, New York

Maxwell, T. and R. Costanza. 1993. An approach to modeling the dynamics of evolutionary self organization. Ecological Modeling. 69:149-161.

Meadows, D. H., D. L. Meadows, and J. Randers. 1992. Beyond the limits: confronting global collapse, envisioning a sustainable future.

Nordhaus, William D 1994 Managing the commons: The economics of climate change. MIT press, Cambridge. 213 pp.

Oreskes, N., K. Shrader-Frechette, and K. Belitz. 1994. Verification, validation, and confirmation of numerical models in the earth sciences. Science. 263:641-646

Rotmans, J. 1990. Image: an integrated model to assess the greenhouse effect

Senge, P. M. 1990. The fifth discipline: the art and practice of the learning organization. Currency-Doubleday, New York.

STELLA manuals. High Performance Systems, Inc.

Swartzman, G. L. and S. P. Kaluzny. 1987. Ecological simulation primer. Macmillan, New York.

Voinov, A.A. and A.A. Akhremenkov, 1990. Simulation modelling system for aquatic bodies. Ecological Modeling, 52: 181-205.

Voinov. A, R. Costanza, L. Wainger, R. Boumans, F. Villa, T. Maxwell and H. Voinov. 1999. The Patuxent landscape model: Integrated ecological economic modeling of a watershed. Environmental Modelling and Software 14:473-491