China Energy and Greenhouse Gas Modeling

Sandia National Laboratories, 1998

Project Summary

China will soon become the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Even assuming aggressive nuclear and hydro development and substantial declines in industrial energy intensity (energy per unit gross domestic product), CO2 emissions from Chinese energy consumption are projected to increase from 0.7 billion tons today to 2.1 billion tons by 2015 and to 3.2 billion tons carbon by 2025. This compares to current global CO2 emissions of 6.15 billion tons carbon. This project reported on dynamic simulation results demonstrating the likely impact of greenhouse gas emissions under scenarios addressing sector, trade, fuel, and technology effects. In particular, the role of trade was analyzed as a potential threat to continued global increases of annual greenhouse gas emissions, despite regional progress.