Modeling and Measuring the Process and Consequences of
Land Use Change: Case Studies in the
Jon Erickson, John Gowdy, and Karin Limburg
The research team of Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry has completed the second year of a three project funded by the Hudson River Foundation. The purpose of this report is to summarize work completed to date. Major year one accomplishments included preliminary data collection, economic and land-use model development, and stakeholder involvement, each reported to an HRF funded workshop, as well as a National Science Foundation funded research exchange program, an NSF sponsored Symposium on Sustainability at Clarkson University, and presentations at meetings of the U.S. Society for Ecological Economics and the N.Y. Federation of Planning.
Year two accomplishments were as follows:
(1) Economic model completed
A geo-referenced economic model of
the industry structure and makeup of
(a) the economic base (as income
generation, employment, and household income distribution) and inter-industry
relationships within
(b) spatial distribution of economic data layers in a coupled GIS system;
(c) a number of pre-defined economic scenarios (developed at the first project workshop);
(d) user-defined economic scenarios;
(e) sensitivity analysis to key model assumptions; and
(f) report generation in Microsoft Excel.
The pre-defined scenarios specifically simulate the potential economic impact of change in the semi-conductor industry, expansion of agro-tourism activities, and commuting behavior (both in and out of the county) and second-home development.
The design and use of this model has served as the basis for the Ph.D. dissertation of Audra Nowosielski (completed in June 2002), a copy of which is included with this report. The model was also demonstrated at a meeting of the Intermunicipal Watershed Council of Dutchess County in January 2002, and has been further refined with input from the Dutchess County Environmental Management Council. Year two presentations of this portion of our work were also made at the New York State GIS Conference in Albany, the Center for Environmental Research in Leipzig, Germany (as part of a continuation of a two-year NSF funded research exchange program), the Biennial Meeting of the International Society for Ecological Economics (in Tunisia), and the Inaugural Meeting of the International Society for Ecosystem Health (in Washington, DC).
(2) Land-use model completed
The economic model will be linked to a recently completed land-use change model of the Wappingers Creek watershed. This model was developed as part of the Ph.D. dissertation of John Polimeni, which will be completed by the end of this August (after which a copy will be sent to the HRF). Briefly, this portion of the project is an econometric-based model that estimates tax parcel specific probabilities of residential development. Development scenarios can be run and displayed on tax parcel maps to explore the impact of changes in income, population, distance to central business districts of vacant lots, residential density of neighborhoods, zoning, agricultural land restrictions, and riparian zone designations, as well as the impact on the total buildable land stock when accounting for wetland, slope, soil, and other development restrictions.
Year two presentations of this portion of our work were also made at the New York State GIS Conference in Albany, the Center for Environmental Research in Leipzig (NSF program), and the Biennial Meeting of the International Society for Ecological Economics (in Tunisia).
(3) Field work nearing completion
Extensive field work was conducted
throughout the summer of 2002, and work continues. Last summer, we worked together with David
Burns of the Dutchess County Environmental Management Council to assess the
status of 33 sites within the
(a) a physical habitat assessment, following a modification of the USGS NAWQA protocols (in consultation with Hudson NAWQA staffer Karen Riva-Murray);
(b) a fish survey, using protocols for completing the regional Index of Biotic Integrity as modified by Daniels et al. (submitted to TAFS);
(c) a benthic macroinvertebrate survey; and
(d) water chemistry (surveyed twice each in high and low flows, respectively), including chlorophyll, TSS, TDS, and major nutrients (we will also assay for heavy metals, but are not set up to do organics).
In addition, we conducted two assays to capture whole-ecosystem behavior: in one, we sampled simplified food webs at each site (consisting of seston, periphyton, and a “standard fish,” black-nose dace) and analyzed them for carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes. The idea is that sewage-affected systems will show an increase in the nitrogen heavy isotope, and food webs stressed by other factors may have shortened trophic transfer lengths, measured by the difference between producer and consumer. We also conducted a partial synoptic survey of six sites for ecosystem production.
We are still in the process of analyses, and in addition, have picked up one more site in the headwaters area of Fishkill Creek, where we are conducting surveys this year. We expect the bulk of the analyses to be completed by December or January. The physical, chemical, fish, and macroinvertebrate studies will become the bulk of Karen Stainbrook’s Master’s thesis at SUNY ESF.
This work (i.e., the entire
project) has been presented by KL at several fora, including an invited seminar
(
Year three activities include creating a fully coupled model
of the Dutchess County Watershed Economy capable of simulating how economic
change affects the watershed landscape, the general development intensity of
sub-catchments to the Wappingers Creek and Fishkill drainages, and water ecosystem
health indicators. The fully coupled
model will be completed this Fall at the