Year One Progress Report

July 1, 2001

The research team of Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry is nearing the end of the first year of a three project funded by the Hudson River Foundation. The purpose of this report is to summarize work completed to date. Major year one goals are listed and summarized. Preliminary data collection, model development, and stakeholder involvement have been reported on at an HRF funded workshop, as well as a National Science Foundation funded research exchange program, an NSF sponsored Symposium on Sustainability at Clarkson University, and forthcoming meetings of the Estuarine Research Federation, the U.S. Society for Ecological Economics, and the N.Y. Federation of Planning.

(1) Study site selection

Dutchess County was selected early in the Fall as the watershed economy for our work. In particular, the Wappingers Creek and Fishkill watersheds were chosen for the participatory modeling. This selection was made after consultation with regional Department of Environmental Conservation staff, the Hudson Greenway, HRF board members and staff, the Dutchess County Planning department, the Dutchess County Environmental Management Council, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other representatives from the Hudson Valley research, planning, and NGO communities. Dutchess County tributary watersheds were ultimately selected due to the willingness of the watershed communities to participate in our project, prior planning experience and historical watershed data, current inter-municipality cooperation with the Dutchess County Greenway plans, and the existence of necessary economic and ecological gradients within watersheds entirely contained in a single county.

(2) Construction of the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the watershed economy

The latest release of 1998 New York county IMPLAN data were purchased in order to construct the Dutchess County SAM. IMPLAN data (see www.implan.com) were cross-checked against various state and census data files. Sensitivity analysis was then performed on a preliminary model, including comparison with 1997 tables. The model economy was characterized by dominant employment and value-added sectors, including a cross-check against GIS business location data. The business point data was also used to identify business concentrations within each standard industrial class (SIC), and develop contact information for industry representatives needed for in phone and on-site interviews. This process of model building and economy characterization was evaluated against current events and economic trends, including discussions with professionals knowledgeable of the Dutchess County economy. With a preliminary model built and tested, a case study of the semi-conductor industry was initiated in order to test scenario analysis and prepare for model demonstration at our spring workshop (described below). This case was informed by telephone interviews with semi-conductor companies, and a visit to one of the IBM facilities.

(3) Design of Geographical Information System (GIS) of the watershed economy

A GIS was compiled with MapInfo software to characterize economic, social, physical, and ecological spatial data of Hudson River tributary watersheds within Dutchess County. The database includes map layers of 1990 census data and year 2000 and 2005 projections (detailed at the census-block level), U.S. Geological Survey data, satellite imagery, business location data, land-use and watershed studies from the Dutchess County Environmental Management Council, and tax parcel data from the county planning office and the N.Y. GIS Clearinghouse. The GIS system has been assembled in a web-type interface for ease of use and trend analysis, including photographs of land-uses throughout the Wappingers Creek watershed, characterizing the southwest to northeast urban to rural landscape gradient.

(4) Ecological study design for Summer 2001

The SUNY ESF team has completed an extensive review of techniques for watershed health characterization. Field experiments are currently underway, with a total of three 2-week intensive monitoring and sampling studies planned for this summer. The first is a survey of sampling sites (12 to 15 in each catchment), including water chemistry sampling and habitat characterizations. We are working with the stations chosen by Dave Burns (Dutchess Cty. EMC) in the Wappingers Creek watershed, and those used by Bob Schmidt (Simons Rock College) in the Fishkill (with modifications as necessary). The second trip will be in July to collect fish to construct an Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI), including limited water sampling. The final trip, in mid to late August, will be to collect water chemistry samples, collect macroinvertebrates for a benthic IBI, and conduct some ecosystem metabolism studies (i.e., 24-hour studies of production and respiration). We will also characterize the riparian zone, and Gary Lovett from the Institute of Ecosystem Studies will assist us with bird count databases. Technical advice and field assistance have been generously offered from the Dutchess County Environmental Management Council, the Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Tom Lynch of Marist College, Karen Murray of the USGS NAWQA program, Bob Schmidt of Simons Rock College, and Bob Daniels of the NY State Museum.

(5) Technical advisory workshop

A major component of our research is to have local stakeholder groups inform the project design, as well as participate in scenario analysis for watershed planning. The year one workshop was created with the design goal in mind. The workshop was held in March at Marist College, in cooperation with Ann Davis of the Economics Department. The workshop agenda and participant list are attached. Workshop goals included: (1) to better understand the evolution of an urban to rural gradient, (2) to discuss methods to integrate sub-models and diverse metrics, (3) to develop scenarios to test and evaluate with an integrated model, (4) to begin to envision policy options and tools for decision-makers, and (5) to build a broad base of interest and expertise. The semi-conductor scenario was used to illustrate the SAM and GIS sub-models. Other economic scenarios that arose from discussions included changes in the agriculture sector (from traditional production to an agro-tourism base), the role of second-home development in rural Dutchess County, suburban sprawl and Greenway policies, and changing county income expenditure patterns resulting from out-of-county commuting.

(6) Scenario design

Stemming from workshop discussions and continued contact with participants, we have continued to fine-tune the semi-conductor industry scenario and develop scenarios for agro-tourism, second-home development, suburban sprawl, Greenway policies, and commuting impact. For example, the semi-conductor scenario will include sensitivity analysis of its local industry linkages, induced demand variation from workforce commuting patterns, and income distribution implications. Resulting residential land-use patterns from an expanding industry will be investigated in the integrated watershed economy model. A survey of existing semi-conductor businesses will be completed this summer to help further fine-tune the SAM and this scenario. The agro-tourism scenario is being investigated as a change in this industry’s production function within the SAM model. The county Soil and Water Conservation District office has been helpful in designing this scenario and putting us in touch with local agro-tourism enterprises. A survey is also planned for this industry.

(7) Sub-model linkages

The SAM, GIS, and fieldwork will be integrated in a dynamic systems model capable of user-defined scenario analysis. The simulation software PowerSim (see www.powersim.com) has been used to create a model template and to begin building a simple test model. Building a linkage from the economic scenarios in the SAM model to land-use patterns and trends in the GIS model has been developed as a Ph.D. dissertation research topic funded in year one by the RPI Economics Department. This complementary project has completed a literature review, data assemblage, and preliminary econometric estimation of development probabilities. The graduate student has applied for an HRF dissertation fellowship for second year support. The linkage from the GIS model to field observations and ecosystem indicators is also under development, and has benefited from thesis research at SUNY ESF, experience of the Institute for Ecosystem Studies (IES) in Millbrook, and a research exchange program funded by the NSF between RPI and the UFZ Centre for Environmental Research in Leipzig, Germany. Our German colleagues have a decade of experience with similar participatory modeling efforts in the Elbe River Watershed of Germany, and the IES is the lead group of a long-term project in Baltimore, Maryland, that was reported on at our first workshop.

Modeling and Measuring the Process and Consequences of Land Use Change:

An Advisory Workshop for Hudson River Tributaries of Dutchess County

Friday, March 23, 2001

Marist College

Hudson Room, 3^rd Floor, Fontaine Building

Poughkeepsie, New York

AGENDA

9 a.m. Project Overview

This workshop seeks input to help shape the early stages of a research project funded by the Hudson River Foundation. A research team from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry are working with local and regional stakeholders to incorporate measures of economic activity, land use change, and environmental quality together in a linked framework capable of evaluating scenarios for policy analysis. The focus of this three-year project is on Dutchess County, and specifically the Wappinger Creek Watershed during the first year. Analysis will be extended to other Hudson tributary watersheds in years two and three.

Initial design of an economic model of Dutchess County, together with a Geographical Information System of land use, will be demonstrated to provide a basis for input revolving around three general themes of Economic Change, Land Use Change, and Watershed Health. The integration of these three themes – in decision models and policy analysis – will be a common topic throughout the workshop.

9:30 a.m. Economic Change

Questions for workshop participants:

· What are the major economic drivers in the lower Hudson Valley, Dutchess County, and the Wappinger Creek Watershed?

· How are these economic forces changing the employment, income, and tax base in the region?

· What are the dominant patterns of how people work, live, and recreate in the Wappinger Creek Watershed?

· How are these patterns changing in the next decade?

· What are the respective roles of market, social, and government forces in shaping economic change?

10:30 a.m. Coffee/Refreshments

11:00 a.m. Land Use Change

Questions for workshop participants:

· How are economic forces resulting in land-use changes?

· What are the dominant land uses in the urban, sub-urban, rural landscapes of the Wappinger Creek Watershed?

· How are land uses changing along an urban to rural gradient of use intensity?

· What policies are in place to guide land use?

· How can land use policy be evaluated?

12:30 p.m Lunch

1:00 p.m. Lunch Speaker – Peter Groffman, Institute of Ecosystem Studies

“The Baltimore Long-Term Ecological Research Study:

Experience and Perspective”

2:00 p.m. Watershed Health

Questions for workshop participants:

· How does land use change affect the ecological structure and function of a watershed?

· How can environmental change be measured and linked to land use and economic change?

· What is the role of watershed health and monitoring in designing policy?

· How does tributary health impact the larger Hudson River system?

3:00 p.m. Session Summary and Open Discussion

How do we integrate economic, land-use, and watershed change in a fashion that is amenable to policy analysis and useful to decision-makers?

4:00 p.m. Adjourn

Invited Participants:

Name	Affiliation
Kendall, Barbara	Environ. Mang. Council
Love, Sarah	Environ. Mang. Council
Burns, David	Environ. Mang. Council
Nolan, John	Pace University
Davis, Ann	Marist College
Lynch, Tom	Marist College
Wermuth, Tom	Marist College
Kiviat, Eric	Bard College; Hudsonia
Clark, John	Dutchess County
Ackeley, Roger	Dutchess County
Daniels, Tom	SUNY-Albany
Daniels, Katherine	Consultant
Groffman, Peter	Instit. of Ecosystem Studies
Findlay, Stuart	Instit. of Ecosystem Studies
Lovett, Gary	Instit. of Ecosystem Studies
Weathers, Kathy	Instit. of Ecosystem Studies
Pickett, Steward	Instit. of Ecosystem Studies
Bain, Mark	Cornell University
Dewan, Debra	Scenic Hudson
Sullivan, Ned	Scenic Hudson
DiTullo, Mike	Patterns for Progress
Hoxsie, Ed	Dutchess County Soil and Water Conservation District
Conroy, Anne	Economic Dev. Corp.
Dunwell, Fran	NYSDEC
Challey, Jim	Vassar College
Buckey, Dick	Poughkeepsie
Murray, Karen	USGS
Cuppett, Scott	NYSDEC
Lange, Glenn-Marie	New York University
Murdoch, Peter	USGS
Daniels, Bob	N.Y.S. Museum
Sampson, David	Hudson River Foundation
Elliot, Bob	Hudson River Foundation
Galloway, Gerald	Hudson River Foundation
Kleppell, Gary	University of Albany
Solomon, Will	Hudson River Sloop Clearwater