Modeling and Measuring the Process and Consequences of Land Use Change: Case Studies in the Hudson River Watershed


Hudson River Foundation, 2000-2004

Project Summary

Land use, which is decided by economic activity and social policies, is a key determinant of ecological structure and function, a fact increasingly recognized by economists and ecologists alike. The Hudson watershed supports a variety of land uses, but the current trend in a large portion of the basin is transformation of forest, pasture, and agricultural lands into suburban and urban uses. The pressure for this change is acute around urban centers, but is also problematic in rural areas such as the Catskills, which provide the water supply for New York City. In order to develop policies that guide sustainable development in the Hudson Valley, it is necessary to understand (1) how economic activities influence land use tenure and change, (2) how these activities influence key ecological properties of the system, and (3) how ecosystem value contributes to broader social goals. This project will make a novel and major contribution to the development of sound public policy toward the Hudson River's ecological system by constructing an integrated assessment model of the economic and land use changes driving ecosystem changes in the River. The overall goal of this study is to incorporate measures of economic activity, land use change, and environmental quality together in a linked framework capable of evaluating scenarios for policy analysis.


Presentations


Symposium sponsored by the Wappingers Creek Watershed Intermunicipal Council, Marist College, May 15, 2004
Jon Erickson's powerpoint presentation
Karin Limburg's powerpoint presentation


Project Publications


Erickson, J.D., Gowdy, J., Limburg, K., Hermans, C., Nowosielski, A., Polimeni, J. and K. Stainbrook, "Anticipating Change in the Hudson River Watershed: an Ecological Economic Model for Integrated Scenario Analysis," in R. Bruins and M. Heberling (Eds.), Economics and Ecological Risk Assessment: Applications to Watershed Management, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, forthcoming.


Erickson, J.D. and K. Limburg, “Balanced Growth Vital: Uncoordinated Development Harms Watersheds,” Poughkeepsie Journal, March 7, 2004.


Erickson, J.D., Messner, F. and I. Ring (Eds.), Ecological Economics of Sustainable Watershed Management, 16 chs., Series on Advances in the Economics of Environmental Resources, Elsevier Science, in progress.


Limburg, K.E., Stainbrook, K.M., Erickson, J.D. and J.M. Gowdy, “Urbanization Causes and Consequences: Case Studies in the Hudson Valley,” in L.R. Brown (Ed.), The Effects of Urbanization on Aquatic Ecosystems, American Fisheries Society, under review.

Polimeni, J., A Dynamic Spatial Simulation of Residential Development in the Hudson River Valley, New York State, Doctoral Dissertation, Ecological Economics, Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY, Aug. 2002.

Nowosielski, A., Geo-Referenced Social Accounting with Application to Integrated Watershed Planning in the Hudson River Valley, Doctoral Dissertation, Ecological Economics, Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY, Aug. 2002.


Project Presentations


Hermans, C., and J.D. Erickson, “Multicriteria Decision-Making in Watershed-Level Environmental Management,” 8th Biennial Conference of the International Society for Ecological Economics, Montreal, Canada, July 11-14, 2004 (forthcoming).


Limburg, K., Stainbrook, K., Erickson, J.D. and J. Gowdy, “Urbanization Causes and Consequences: Case Studies in the Hudson River Watershed,” Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society, Quebec City, August 2003.


Erickson, J.D., “We Paved Paradise and Put Up a Parking Lot: Economic, Social, and Ecological Implications of Incremental Choice,” Research Experience for Undergraduates Program, National Science Foundation, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY, July 1, 2003.


Hermans, C. and J.D. Erickson, “An Application of Outranking MCDM in Land-Use Planning,” Second Biennial Conference of the U.S. Society for Ecological Economics, Saratoga Springs, NY, May 22-24, 2003.


Erickson, J.D., “Participatory Scenario Analysis in a Spatial Social Accounting Framework: Applications in Watershed Planning,” Environmental Research Group Seminar Series, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, Oct. 3, 2002.


Limburg, K. and J.D. Erickson, “Modeling and Measuring Economic Drivers and Ecosystem Health: Case Studies in the Hudson River Watershed,” Healthy Ecosystems, Healthy People: Inaugural Meeting of the International Society for Ecosystem Health, Jun. 7-10, 2002.


Gowdy, J., Erickson, J.D., Limburg, K., Nowosielski, A., Polimeni, J. and K. Stainbrook, “Participatory Scenario Analysis in the Hudson River Watershed, New York, USA,” Seventh Biennial Conference of the International Society for Ecological Economics, Sousse, Tunisia, Mar. 6-9, 2002.


Polimeni, J. and J.D. Erickson, “Simulating Residential Development from Economic Trends in the Hudson River Valley, New York State, USA,” Seventh Biennial Conference of the International Society for Ecological Economics, Sousse, Tunisia, Mar. 6-9, 2002.


Limburg, K., Erickson, J.D., Gowdy, J., Nowosielski, A., Polimeni, J. and K. Stainbrook, “Modeling and Measuring Economic Drivers and Ecosystem Health: Case Studies in the Hudson River Watershed,” Sixteenth Biennial Conference of the Estuarine Research Federation, St. Pete Beach, FL, Nov. 4-8, 2002.


Erickson, J.D., “From Economy to Ecology: Modeling and Measuring the Socio-Ecological Dynamics of Land-Use Change,” UFZ Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany, Apr. 25, 2001.